Perspectives: Bill Campbell - Reading the Fed Without a Script

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Bill Campbell - Portfolio Manager, Global Sovereign Debt

DoubleLine's Bill Campbell, head of the firm's global sovereign and emerging markets team, joins Client Portfolio Manager Jeff Probst on the latest episode of Perspectives to unpack why markets read Fed Chair Warsh's second meeting so differently than his first. Bill traces the shift back to Warsh's move away from forward guidance. In June, his repeated emphasis on price stability convinced markets he would act aggressively on inflation. In July, when pressed on why he hadn't acted despite inflation still running above target, he had no clear answer, a change Bill believes explains the sharp yield curve steepening that followed. He also ties the long end's volatility to a broader global fiscal backdrop, from ongoing war spending in the U.S. to fiscal uncertainty in Japan and a new government in the UK.

On positioning, Bill says these developments reinforce DoubleLine's existing playbook rather than changing it. The team continues to favor the belly of the curve, sees a weaker dollar and international markets, particularly emerging market local currency debt, as attractive medium-term opportunities, and remains disciplined on credit, preferring to stay up in quality with tight spreads across the board.

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Contacts

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DoubleLine Capital LP

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DoubleLine has been managing money for insurers since its inception in 2009. The firm's focus on securitized fixed income and risk management positions it well to manage money for insurers. The firm offers an array of fixed income strategies including dedicated ABS, private ABF, CLOs, infrastructure debt, non-QM, commercial and residential loans, multi-sector fixed income and EM. We understand that the needs of each insurer can vary, and our insurance team is focused on providing our clients with unparalleled access to the investment team and creating custom solutions to meet their distinctive objectives. DoubleLine wants to be your fixed income partner.
 

Paul Schroeder, CFA   
Relationship Manager- Insurance  
paul.schroeder@doubleline.com
Direct: 213-372-3123
Main: 813-791-7333
 

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