Q2 2026 Global Trends and Tactics: Real Estate Opportunities and Risks in the Current Environment

Discover the latest quarterly real estate market trends in our . Dive deeper into regional market and sector conditions to find out the tactics we incorporate into our investment decisions.

Global real estate stabilizes with seven consecutive quarters of positive returns as transaction activity strengthens

• Global private real estate values have increased for five consecutive quarters through Q4 2025, with total returns positive across 20 out of 21 countries in the MSCI index, supported by stable income returns.
• Transaction volumes reached $890 billion over the trailing year across the U.S., Europe and Asia Pacific, a 17% increase year-over-year, as pricing stabilizes below 2019 levels.
• Global institutions are starting the year below their target allocation to real estate with nearly 3x as many investors planning to invest more capital in 2026 compared to those who intend to invest less.

U.S. returns positive for last seven quarters amid improving values

• Most retail and medical outpatient markets have vacancies below long-term averages. The industrial market is near equilibrium with most vacancies concentrated in larger properties and with light industrial space particularly tight. The wide spread in vacancies across all property types highlights that there are opportunities in each sector.
• The number of new projects getting started has dropped significantly across sectors, which will bode well for future fundamentals as new supply will become less of a headwind.
• Momentum in deal activity continued at the start of 2026, as sales volume grew 27% year-over-year in Q1 2026.

The European real estate market entered 2026 with improving fundamentals, stabilizing values and broadening transaction activity

• Markets with deep product pools including the U.K., Germany, Spain and France finished 2025 with positive investor sentiment and increased transaction volumes. The war in Iran has reignited concerns on macroeconomic uncertainty, and is likely to temper recovery.
• The pre-war market consensus that the ECB had concluded its cutting has shifted, with rate hikes now being priced in by year-end on the back of renewed inflationary pressure. European government bond yields have moved in tandem.
• European CRE has already endured a substantial correction cycle, with valuations now sitting at cyclical lows relative to many competing asset classes. This provides a degree of buffer and positions CRE more attractively on a risk-adjusted basis.

Asia Pacific investment activity carried the strong momentum established in the preceding year into Q1 2026

• The escalation of Middle East conflict in March, coupled with mounting inflationary pressures and the prospect of a shift in monetary policy direction, prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance.
• Sector and market selection have become increasingly critical, with prime offices in North Asia and non-discretionary retail in Australia offering relative resilience.
• Capital will gravitate towards modern logistics facilities equipped to support occupier automation, as well as infill assets well-positioned within established urban catchments and key transport networks.

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Disclosures

This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation to buy, sell or hold a security or investment strategy and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor, or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor's objectives and circumstances and in consultation with their financial advisors. Financial professionals should independently evaluate the risks associated with products or services and exercise independent judgment with respect to their clients.

Nuveen, LLC provides investment solutions through its investment specialists.

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