Robert Cohen: Fixed Income the Ballast, Not Another AI Bet | Adjusted for Risk

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DoubleLine Director of Corporate Credit Robert Cohen joins Zephyr’s Adjusted for Risk podcast, hosted by Market Strategist Ryan Nauman, to discuss the current macroeconomic environment, AI’s growing influence on credit markets and the state of corporate credit. Mr. Cohen distills the macro backdrop into two words: “war” and “AI.” The Middle East conflict has driven oil price volatility and raised the risk of a meaningful pickup in core CPI, he observes, while AI-driven capex from hyperscalers is simultaneously stimulating earnings and inflating valuations across equities and credit. Mr. Cohen draws a careful parallel to the dot-com era, noting that while credit markets haven’t yet seen the kind of deals that are clearly destined to fail, the early signs of speculative excess—companies being valued on annualized recurring revenue rather than earnings—are starting to reappear.

On portfolio construction, he is direct about DoubleLine’s approach to AI risk: Fixed income is meant to be the ballast in a portfolio, not a second bet on the same trade investors already have through equities. Thus, the firm actively measures and limits AI exposure across its credit holdings. Mr. Cohen sees corporate credit in good health overall, supported by an ongoing upgrade cycle in both investment grade and high yield, but flags weakness building in the CCC segment of the bank loan and private credit markets as a legacy of 2021-era excess. He favors a lower duration approach given the risk that long rates might no longer behave as a reliable hedge against equity volatility, and Mr. Cohen reiterates his preference for multi-sector, actively managed fixed income over single-sector or passive approaches.

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