StepStone Private Equity 2026 House Views

The private equity market is navigating ongoing macro uncertainty, evolving trade dynamics and a gradual reopening of deal and exit markets. Our annual 2026 Private Equity House Views discusses the latest trends and themes for 2026.

What to expect in 2026?

• Deal activity: Deal activity rebounded in 2H25 as debt markets reopened, though this was driven by large-scale transactions rather than deal count. Dry powder remains elevated and aging, and there is a growing backlog of companies ready for sale. Recovery in new deal activity is expected to continue in 2026 but will require further narrowing of buyer-seller valuation gaps.
• Liquidity: Distributions as a % of NAV improved modestly in 2025 but remain well below the long-term average. With ~60% of PE-backed companies held for four years or more, and pressures on GPs to generate DPI ahead of fundraising, we should see continued gradual improvement in exits. However, due to the growth in NAV during 2019-2022, it will take a longer sustained recovery to return to a normalized distribution environment (as % of NAV). Secondaries and other GP-led solutions are expanding as important liquidity tools.
• AI risks and opportunities: AI adoption is increasing as a value creation lever for GP operations and their portfolio companies. In the case of software companies, rapid AI advancement has introduced disruption risk for some business models and potential for winners and losers, requiring companies to adapt to stay ahead.

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