2026 Credit Market Outlook: Boring, Choppy or Hot?

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In this 2026 Credit Market Outlook round table, DoubleLine’s Phil Gioia moderates a wide-ranging discussion with Portfolio Managers Robert Cohen, Ken Shinoda and Morris Chen, exploring how shifting macroeconomic dynamics, valuations and emerging structural themes – most notably AI-driven capital investment – are shaping today’s credit landscape. The group revisits lessons from the post-2023 recovery, examines where returns have already been harvested across major fixed-income sectors, and highlights why active risk management and cross-sector relative-value positioning might be more important in 2026 than in prior years. Together, they offer guidance for professionals seeking to position credit portfolios amid tight spreads, uneven economic performance and an accelerating new-issue pipeline.

Mr. Cohen assesses the corporate credit environment, emphasizing that the biggest risk heading into the new year might be owning too much credit rather than too little. With spreads historically tight and sector-level performance increasingly divergent, he underscores the need for disciplined credit selection rather than broad beta exposure. Mr. Cohen also outlines how the rapid expansion of AI-related capital spending – much of it backed by hyperscale balance sheets but increasingly spilling into speculative standalone projects – could structurally reshape the investment grade and high yield markets. He highlights both the opportunity and potential late-cycle risks as AI infrastructure financing grows from de minimis levels into a meaningful share of the credit universe.

Mr. Shinoda discusses the evolution of themes he has tracked throughout the year in his Channel 11 webcast series, including the broad repricing of fixed income following rate volatility and subsequent capital rotation into securitized markets. He explains how Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), once neglected, materially outperformed in 2025, and why traditional beta-driven returns are unlikely to repeat. Mr. Shinoda expects 2026 to be defined by heavier supply across credit sectors – from corporate to securitized to AI-linked issuance – and believes a winning strategy will be a diversified, multisector credit allocation capable of exploiting relative-value dislocations. He also highlights key macro swing factors – from long-term rate dynamics to labor-market resilience – that could drive volatility and create attractive entry points for patient investors.

Mr. Chen turns to commercial real estate (CRE) and commercial MBS (CMBS), where he sees the first signs of true normalization after several years of stress. Mr. Chen notes that with issuance expected to remain elevated and investors still somewhat distracted by AI-related themes, CMBS could offer opportunities for investors who can evaluate property-level fundamentals and structure. He also addresses the growing intersection between CRE and AI – particularly the financing of data centers – highlighting the need for rigorous underwriting; price discipline; and caution around newer, more speculative structures. Across CRE, Mr. Chen emphasizes that tighter lending standards and broader skepticism have created a healthier backdrop for 2026 underwriting.

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