First Quarter 2024 Market Outlook

Investors experienced a ferocious rally as 2023 concluded, taking rates sharply lower and spreads tighter. After a pause, the rally will likely resume, albeit at a slower pace. And that continuation may occur with all-in yields hovering near multi-year highs, signaling that we’re still at a strategic buy point for bonds.        

In “Year 1 of the Churn and Earn Bull Market; More to Come,” Robert Tipp, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds, explains that once yields have etched out the top of the range and central bank rate hike cycles have concluded, what comes next isn’t complicated. Tipp also reflects on several big-picture topics with long-term investment implications.

“Transitory Truths Reveal the Paradigm’s Next Phase,” by Daleep Singh, Chief Global Economist and Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, suggests that the global surge in inflation may have been transitory after all. Indications that central banks will step away from tightening their respective monetary policies feeds into our global economic scenarios for the coming year.

Read the Outlook