Infrastructure 2026 Outlook

Riding the wave while avoiding the crowds

Key Takeaways:

• Despite geopolitical and economic uncertainty, infrastructure’s essential nature allows for better resilience across market cycles.
• We have pivoted towards private infrastructure, assets that are contracted with private counterparties and used primarily by private customers.
• We believe that the key to investing in data centers is avoiding crowded, headline themes with high entry multiples, and rather focus on secondary and tertiary themes that offer better risk adjusted return profiles.

"The proliferation of data centers and their related power needs are the two most important trends we are seeing right now. We want to focus on corresponding secondary and tertiary themes that offer better risk adjusted return profiles."

What We Are Seeing

Geopolitical uncertainty is the new normal and is here to stay. Affordability concerns have created significant political and regulatory risk in assets where costs ultimately pass through to the voting population.

We have seen slower exit activity, especially with the largest deals. At a time when investors’ infrastructure portfolios are maturing, there is increased focus on distributions to paid-in capital (or DPI) as a metric. As managers grapple with this DPI pressure, we anticipate more exit activity, which in turn should generate more deal flow.

What We Are Doing

We have focused on infrastructure assets that are contracted with private counterparties, while minimizing exposure to subsidies, economic regulation or governments counterparties.

Our traditional sources of deal flow continue to come through various market cycles. One important source of opportunity is carve-outs, which allow companies and strategic partners to address their capital needs while taking a focused approach to their business.

We have also focused on take-privates for deal flow that is insulated from market conditions.

Finally, as we are a middle-market infrastructure investor, our team finds ample opportunities to offer creative solutions via partnerships with families and individuals.

What We Are Watching

The proliferation of data centers and their related power needs are the two most important trends we are seeing right now. Recent reports estimate that data centers will require more than 50 Gigawatts of power in the US by 2028, representing roughly half of the growth in total power demand.¹

We believe that the key to investing in data centers is avoiding crowded, headline themes with high entry multiples, and rather focus on secondary and tertiary themes that offer better risk adjusted return profiles such as wholesale multi-tenant data centers.
 

Secular Trends: AI, Digitalization & Increasing Power Demand
Sharp Growth in Global Data Center Capacity Demand Driven by AI and Non-AI Workloads...

Image

...Will Require Significant Investments Across Digital and Power Infrastructure

Image

Source: McKinsey, The cost of compute: A $7 trillion race to scale data centers
 

Read More from Morgan Stanley Investment Management

1 Excludes IT services, software and IT capex (compute)
2 Excludes distribution costs.

Index Definitions
The indexes are unmanaged and do not include any expenses, fees or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index: provides a broad-based measure of the global investment grade fixed-rate debt markets. Total Returns shown is unhedged USD.  The index is unmanaged and does not include any expenses, fees or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Risk Considerations
Diversification does not eliminate the risk of loss.

There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them. Market values can change daily due to economic and other events (e.g., natural disasters, health crises, terrorism, conflicts, and social unrest) that affect markets, countries, companies, or governments. It is difficult to predict the timing, duration, and potential adverse effects (e.g., portfolio liquidity) of events. Accordingly, you can lose money investing in a portfolio. Fixed-income securities are subject to the ability of an issuer to make timely principal and interest payments (credit risk), changes in interest rates (interest rate risk), the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity (market risk). In a rising interest-rate environment, bond prices may fall and may result in periods of volatility and increased portfolio redemptions. In a declining interest-rate environment, the portfolio may generate less income. Longer-term securities may be more sensitive to interest rate changes. Certain U.S. government securities purchased by the strategy, such as those issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are not backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. It is possible that these issuers will not have the funds to meet their payment obligations in the future Public bank loans are subject to liquidity risk and the credit risks of lower-rated securities.  High-yield securities (junk bonds) are lower-rated securities that may have a higher degree of credit and liquidity risk. Sovereign debt securities are subject to default risk. Mortgage- and asset-backed securities are sensitive to early prepayment risk and a higher risk of default and may be hard to value and difficult to sell (liquidity risk). They are also subject to credit, market, and interest rate risks. The currency market is highly volatile. Prices in these markets are influenced by, among other things, changing supply and demand for a particular currency; trade; fiscal, money and domestic or foreign exchange control programs and policies; and changes in domestic and foreign interest rates. Investments in foreign markets entail special risks such as currency, political, economic and market risks. The risks of investing in emerging market countries are greater than the risks generally associated with foreign investments. Investing in companies in anticipation of a catalyst event, such as AI adoption, carries the risk that such catalysts may not occur, may be delayed, or that the market may react differently than expected. Companies focused on AI may have limited product lines, markets or financial resources, and their management and performance may be particularly impacted by events that adversely affect AI adoption, such as rapid changes in product technology cycles, product obsolescence, government regulation, cybersecurity concerns and competition.

There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will work under all market conditions, and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.

A separately managed account may not be appropriate for all investors. Separate accounts managed according to the Strategy include a number of securities and will not necessarily track the performance of any index. Please consider the investment objectives, risks and fees of the Strategy carefully before investing. A minimum asset level is required.

For important information about the investment managers, please refer to Form ADV Part 2.

The views and opinions and/or analysis expressed are those of the author or the investment team as of the date of preparation of this material and are subject to change at any time without notice due to market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass. Furthermore, the views will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect information that subsequently becomes available or circumstances existing, or changes occurring, after the date of publication. The views expressed do not reflect the opinions of all investment personnel at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM) and its subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively “the Firm”) and may not be reflected in all the strategies and products that the Firm offers.

Forecasts and/or estimates provided herein are subject to change and may not actually come to pass. Information regarding expected market returns and market outlooks is based on the research, analysis and opinions of the authors or the investment team. These conclusions are speculative in nature, may not come to pass and are not intended to predict the future performance of any specific strategy or product the Firm offers. Future results may differ significantly depending on factors such as changes in securities or financial markets or general economic conditions.

This material has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other third-party sources believed to be reliable. However, no assurances are provided regarding the reliability of such information and the Firm has not sought to independently verify information taken from public and third-party sources.

This material is a general communication, which is not impartial, and all information provided has been prepared solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The information herein has not been based on a consideration of any individual investor circumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construed in any way as tax, accounting, legal or regulatory advice. To that end, investors should seek independent legal and financial advice, including advice as to tax consequences, before making any investment decision.

Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The indexes are unmanaged and do not include any expenses, fees, or sales charges. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Any index referred to herein is the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of the applicable licensor. Any product based on an index is in no way sponsored, endorsed, sold, or promoted by the applicable licensor and it shall not have any liability with respect thereto.This material is not a product of Morgan Stanley’s Research Department and should not be regarded as a research material or a recommendation. The Firm has not authorized financial intermediaries to use and to distribute this material unless such use and distribution is made in accordance with applicable law and regulation. Additionally, financial intermediaries are required to satisfy themselves that the information in this material is appropriate for any person to whom they provide this material in view of that person’s circumstances and purpose. The Firm shall not be liable for, and accepts no liability for, the use or misuse of this material by any such financial intermediary. This material may be translated into other languages. Where such a translation is made this English version remains definitive. If there are any discrepancies between the English version and any version of this material in another language, the English version shall prevail.The whole or any part of this material may not be directly or indirectly reproduced, copied, modified, used to create a derivative work, performed, displayed, published, posted, licensed, framed, distributed, or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without the Firm’s express written consent. This material may not be linked to unless such hyperlink is for personal and non-commercial use. All information contained herein is proprietary and is protected under copyright and other applicable law.Eaton Vance is part of Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Morgan Stanley Investment Management is the asset management division of Morgan Stanley.

This material is only intended for and will only be distributed to persons resident in jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local laws or regulations.

MSIM, the asset management division of Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and its affiliates have arrangements in place to market each other’s products and services.  Each MSIM affiliate is regulated as appropriate in the jurisdiction it operates. MSIM’s affiliates are: Calvert Research and Management, Eaton Vance Management, Parametric Portfolio Associates LLC, Parametric SAS, and Atlanta Capital Management LLC.

This material has been issued by any one or more of the following entities:

EMEA
This material is for Professional Clients/Accredited Investors only. In the EU, MSIM materials are issued by MSIM Fund Management (Ireland) Limited (“FMIL”). FMIL is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and is incorporated in Ireland as a private company limited by shares with company registration number 616661 and has its registered address at 24-26 City Quay, Dublin 2, DO2 NY19, Ireland.

Outside the EU, MSIM materials are issued by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Limited (MSIM Ltd) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Registered No. 1981121. Registered Office: 25 Cabot Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 4QA.

In Switzerland, MSIM materials are issued by Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc, London (Zurich Branch) Authorised and regulated by the Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht ("FINMA"). Registered Office: Beethovenstrasse 33, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland.

Italy: MSIM FMIL (Milan Branch), (Sede Secondaria di Milano) Palazzo Serbelloni Corso Venezia, 16 20121 Milano, Italy. The Netherlands: MSIM FMIL (Amsterdam Branch), Rembrandt Tower, 11th Floor Amstelplein 1 1096HA, Netherlands. France: MSIM FMIL (Paris Branch), 61 rue de Monceau 75008 Paris, France. Spain: MSIM FMIL (Madrid Branch), Calle Serrano 55, 28006, Madrid, Spain. Germany: MSIM FMIL Frankfurt Branch, Große Gallusstraße 18, 60312 Frankfurt am Main, Germany (Gattung: Zweigniederlassung (FDI) gem. § 53b KWG). Denmark: MSIM FMIL (Copenhagen Branch), Gorrissen Federspiel, Axel Towers, Axeltorv2, 1609 Copenhagen V, Denmark.

MIDDLE EAST
Dubai International Financial Centre: This information does not constitute or form part of any offer to issue or sell, or any solicitation of any offer to subscribe for or purchase, any securities or investment products in the UAE (including the Dubai International Financial Centre and the Abu Dhabi Global Market) and accordingly should not be construed as such. Furthermore, this information is being made available on the basis that the recipient acknowledges and understands that the entities and securities to which it may relate have not been approved, licensed by or registered with the UAE Central Bank, the Dubai Financial Services Authority, the UAE Securities and Commodities Authority, the Financial Services Regulatory Authority or any other relevant licensing authority or government agency in the UAE. The content of this report has not been approved by or filed with the UAE Central Bank, the Dubai Financial Services Authority, the UAE Securities and Commodities Authority or the Financial Services Regulatory Authority.

Abu Dhabi Global Market ("ADGM"): This material is sent strictly within the context of, and constitutes, an Exempt Communication. This material relates to the strategy which is not subject to any form of regulation or approval by the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of the Abu Dhabi Global Market (the “FSRA”).

Saudi Arabia
This financial promotion was issued and approved for use in Saudi Arabia by Morgan Stanley Saudi Arabia, Al Rashid Tower, Kings Sand Street, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, authorized and regulated by the Capital Market Authority license number 06044-37.

U.S.
NOT FDIC INSURED | OFFER NO BANK GUARANTEE | MAY LOSE VALUE | NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY | NOT A DEPOSIT

Latin America (Brazil, Chile Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay)
This material is for use with an institutional investor or a qualified investor only. All information contained herein is confidential and is for the exclusive use and review of the intended addressee, and may not be passed on to any third party. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a public offering, solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell for any product, service, security and/or strategy. A decision to invest should only be made after reading the strategy documentation and conducting in-depth and independent due diligence.

ASIA PACIFIC
Hong Kong: This document has been issued by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited, CE No. AAD291, for use in Hong Kong and shall only be made available to “professional investors” as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 571). The contents of this document have not been reviewed nor approved by any regulatory authority including the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Accordingly, save where an exemption is available under the relevant law, this document shall not be issued, circulated, distributed, directed at, or made available to, the public in Hong Kong. Singapore: This material is disseminated in Singapore by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Company, Registration No. 199002743C. This material should not be considered to be the subject of an invitation for subscription or purchase, whether directly or indirectly, to the public or any member of the public in Singapore other than (i) to an institutional investor under section 304 of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (“SFA”), (ii) to a “relevant person” (which includes an accredited investor) pursuant to section 305 of the SFA, and such distribution is in accordance with the conditions specified in section 305 of the SFA; or (iii) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with the conditions of, any other applicable provision of the SFA. This material has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Australia: This material is provided by Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Australia) Pty Ltd ABN 22122040037, AFSL No. 314182 and its affiliates and does not constitute an offer of interests. Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Australia) Pty Limited arranges for MSIM affiliates to provide financial services to Australian wholesale clients. This material will not be lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

Japan
For professional investors, this material is circulated or distributed for informational purposes only. For those who are not professional investors, this material is provided in relation to Morgan Stanley Investment Management (Japan) Co., Ltd. (“MSIMJ”)’s business with respect to discretionary investment management agreements (“IMA”) and investment advisory agreements (“IAA”).  This is not for the purpose of a recommendation or solicitation of transactions or offers any particular financial instruments. Under an IMA, with respect to management of assets of a client, the client prescribes basic management policies in advance and commissions MSIMJ to make all investment decisions based on an analysis of the value, etc. of the securities, and MSIMJ accepts such commission. The client shall delegate to MSIMJ the authorities necessary for making investment. MSIMJ exercises the delegated authorities based on investment decisions of MSIMJ, and the client shall not make individual instructions.  All investment profits and losses belong to the clients; principal is not guaranteed. Please consider the investment objectives and nature of risks before investing. As an investment advisory fee for an IAA or an IMA, the amount of assets subject to the contract multiplied by a certain rate (the upper limit is 2.20% per annum (including tax)) shall be incurred in proportion to the contract period. For some strategies, a contingency fee may be incurred in addition to the fee mentioned above. Indirect charges also may be incurred, such as brokerage commissions for incorporated securities. Since these charges and expenses are different depending on a contract and other factors, MSIMJ cannot present the rates, upper limits, etc. in advance. All clients should read the Documents Provided Prior to the Conclusion of a Contract carefully before executing an agreement. This material is disseminated in Japan by MSIMJ, Registered No. 410 (Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firms)), Membership: the Japan Securities Dealers Association, The Investment Trusts Association, Japan, the Japan Investment Advisers Association and the Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association.