Consilient Research explores the wisdom of crowds across prediction markets, sports betting, and the stock market, examining accuracy, incentives, and more.
Learn More Consilient Research explores the wisdom of crowds across prediction markets, sports betting, and the stock market, examining accuracy, incentives, and more.
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Timely insights on the private credit landscape, exploring the trends, market developments, and investment considerations shaping the asset class.
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We are currently observing a structural reorganization within established megatrends. In data centers, compute is shifting from a centralized model to a distributed, multi-layered network, as inference-driven and latency-sensitive workloads scale. This expands demand and reshapes where and how infrastructure is deployed.
Read More Performance is increasingly driven by structural growth drivers rather than cyclical market exposure. Secular themes such as AI, deglobalization, demographic shifts and energy demand are creating clear winners and laggards. This environment reinforces the importance of selectivity, diversification and active capital allocation to capture emerging pockets of outperformance.
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We believe the current market environment is becoming more favorable for scaled private credit lenders as pricing power improves and financing demand accelerates, driven by cyclical and secular forces.
Read More The foundation for a multi-year recovery is now in place. The next phase depends less on direction than on breadth.
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In today's complex macro environment, active fixed income management offers institutional investors both stability and return potential.
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In his most recent TAKE, Andrew Slimmon discusses the hazards of only focusing on the macro and overlooking the micro, what is happening at the companies that comprise the equity market. Are there opportunities investors are missing?
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Discover why opportunistic credit is gaining momentum as borrowers seek flexible capital solutions and investors seek differentiated returns in the evolving private markets.
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Morgan Stanley explains why strong borrower demand, limited bank lending and an ongoing illiquidity premium continue to support European private credit. The paper also addresses concerns about recent defaults, AI disruption, BDCs and comparisons with the 2008 financial crisis.
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Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners' sat down with Infrastructure Investors to discuss how AI is transforming digital infrastructure.
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s The BEAT™ offers timely market ideas and insights for the current investment environment. The Q3 2026 edition is designed to help investors navigate markets with practical portfolio perspective.
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management examines why water should not be treated as a free input for industrial companies. The article highlights how water scarcity can create higher costs, permitting challenges, operational risks and the need for companies to secure reliable access to supply.
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Jim Caron, CIO of the Portfolio Solutions Group, shares his macro thematic views on key market drivers.
Read More Use The BEAT™ as your timely resource for the markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management examines how the Iran conflict is affecting oil prices, inflation expectations and global markets. The article argues that the current environment appears to be a price shock rather than a valuation shock, creating potential opportunities to reestablish growth strategies at more attractive entry points.
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Discover why the duration of the Iran-related conflict may matter more than the size of the initial oil shock. The article looks at possible effects on oil supply, shipping, technology, manufacturing, energy, and global supply chains.
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management provides an overview of six major private credit strategies: direct lending, asset-based finance, distressed debt, mezzanine lending, special situations and venture debt. The piece explains how each strategy works, its key benefits and risks, and how it may fit within a private asset portfolio.
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management examines how private credit conditions are evolving and what that may mean for life insurers. The article highlights capital resilience, stress testing, private fixed income opportunity sets and the importance of long-term underwriting discipline.
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management reviews how emerging markets debt began 2026 with strong momentum before geopolitical volatility reversed some gains in March. The article highlights how country-level fundamentals, oil price dynamics, policy responses and differentiated opportunities continue to shape the EMD outlook.
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We step back to examine how the consumer industry has already evolved as barriers to entry have meaningfully reduced – and how AI may shape its next phase.
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In this interview, originally published by Infrastructure Investors in their Energy Transition issue, Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners’ Chris Ortega explores how the global energy transition is entering a more disciplined phase—where selectivity, not scale, defines success.
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While disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz and broader Middle East tensions kept oil prices elevated, markets increasingly focused on the likelihood that supply disruptions would remain contained.
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Morgan Stanley examines the growth of private credit and its implications for preferred securities investors. The article explains why private credit risks appear manageable for banks and insurers, while emphasizing the importance of borrower fundamentals, credit selection and issuer resilience.
Read More This is a follow up to our recent report, “Bayes and Base Rates,” which argued that to anticipate what is going to happen, it is useful to start with base rates as a prior probability distribution and to update your view based on new information.
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Use The BEAT™ as your timely resource for the markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.
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Today’s market is demanding a more disciplined approach to income investing; Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing’s David Gross sat down with PERE to discuss the rise of selectivity in net lease real estate investing.
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management discusses how higher energy costs, inflation risk and geopolitical volatility are reshaping real estate fundamentals and capital markets. The article highlights why private real estate credit may offer durable income, downside protection and attractive risk-adjusted returns in the current environment.
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The conflict in Iran has introduced a familiar dynamic for municipal investors: Geopolitical uncertainty translating into higher energy prices, rising inflation expectations and increased rate volatility.
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“I don’t understand why the stock market is at an all-time-high” is a consistent refrain I hear lately from many investors.
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Active municipal ETFs have become more popular over the last several years because they can provide benefits unavailable from passive ETFs.
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Both individuals and teams are subject to biases that may affect company evaluation and portfolio decisions. Eaton Vance Equity teams have incorporated Portfolio Exercises into our investment process to systematically counter behavioral biases.
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Direct Lending is a type of Private Credit strategy that makes direct, illiquid loans to middle market companies outside of the traditional banking system. Direct Lending usually refers to first lien loans as well as unitranche loans that combine different debt classes or liens into a single loan.
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management reviews Q1 2026 high yield market conditions across U.S. and European high yield bonds, including performance, issuance, fundamentals, valuations, defaults, CLOs, and the broader case for high yield. Readers will learn how yields, spreads, duration, credit quality, and market technicals are shaping the high yield opportunity set.
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The first quarter of 2026 started in positive territory for broad global equity markets, but sentiment reversed following the U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran at the end of February. By March end, the MSCI World Index had fallen 6.4% in the month, leaving it down 4% for the quarter.
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The U.S. represents just 4% of the global population and contributes 26% of GDP, yet accounts for approximately two-thirds of the MSCI All Country World Index by market cap.
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Morgan Stanley Real Assets explains how higher energy costs may pressure some industrial demand in the near term while reinforcing the long-term value of well-located infill industrial assets. The article highlights how supply-chain resiliency, defense spending, AI-driven e-commerce growth and rising drayage costs may reshape industrial market demand.
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In February, the United States Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The administration responded swiftly, introducing 15% tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act, highlighting a deeper shift: U.S. economic engagement with the world is becoming less rules-based and more discretionary. Trade, immigration and cross-border capital flows are increasingly driven by national priorities rather than institutional commitments.
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In the last several years, individual investors have increasingly embraced semi-liquid evergreen funds to access alternative investments. A shift can also be seen in the institutional market and with family offices.
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management reviews a month defined by geopolitical escalation, higher oil prices and a broad repricing across rates, credit and emerging markets. The outlook highlights long duration positioning, selective emerging market debt, cautious corporate credit views and continued conviction in securitized products.
Read More A sharp geopolitical escalation late in the period dramatically shifted the market’s tone. Iranian retaliation targeted regional infrastructure, while tanker attacks effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of global oil supply.
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Industrial real estate, fueled by the rise of eCommerce, was the standout real estate property sector over the last decade. This outperformance was accelerated during COVID.
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Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners’ Alberto Donzelli discusses why mid-market infrastructure may offer attractive opportunities for investors seeking diversification, operational value creation and multiple exit paths. The interview highlights bilateral deal sourcing, lower entry multiples and the growing role of mid-market infrastructure within LP portfolios.
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Overview of the trends and developments in the muni bond markets.
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management reviews Q1 2026 emerging markets debt performance across local currency, hard currency sovereigns, corporate credit, FX, and interest rates. Discover how geopolitical risk, oil price shocks, inflation pressure, and country-level fundamentals are shaping the outlook for emerging market debt.
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Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global team explains why competitive advantage period, or how long a company can sustain returns above its cost of capital, is a critical but often overlooked driver of value. The report reviews valuation history, competitive strategy, ROIC persistence and practical methods for estimating market-implied expectations.
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After the post‑COVID surge in deliveries, new construction has fallen, thinning the medium‑term pipeline and setting the stage for improving fundamentals as excess supply is absorbed.
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High yield markets entered 2026 with attractive yields, shorter duration, and generally stable fundamentals, though Q1 returns were slightly negative for both U.S. and European high yield. Readers will get a data-driven look at high yield market size, sector exposure, issuance trends, defaults, valuations, CLOs, and the role high yield may play in portfolios.
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Insight on loan market fundamentals and the role of floating-rate loans within portfolios.
Read More An investor cannot focus on growth and avoid obsolescence at the same time—innovation doesn’t work that way. The investor’s job is not to hide from AI disruption, but to manage it and monetize the potential dispersion it creates.
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A cyber attack can erase a year of operating profit in a matter of weeks, making cybersecurity a defensive necessity.
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Digital assets sit at the intersection of technology and finance, using blockchain networks to record ownership and transactions in new ways. Readers will learn why understanding blockchain basics and the differences between major networks can help investors decide whether digital assets belong in a broader investment strategy.
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Accessing digital assets through a familiar investment structure
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Understanding a method of transferring assets without selling
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Understanding the first and most established cryptocurrency
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Understanding how cryptocurrency may fit within a diversified portfolio
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management explains how its Quantitative Credit Strategy model uses five signals to help guide tactical credit risk positioning. Readers will learn how market technicals, risk sentiment, the business cycle, carry, and valuation can work together to support a more disciplined corporate credit investment process.
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management sees securitized credit as an attractive fixed income opportunity, even after recent spread widening. Readers will learn why agency MBS, non-agency RMBS, high-end CMBS, and select business ABS may offer income, quality, and resilience in a more uncertain market.
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Morgan Stanley Investment Management examines whether the AI-driven software sell-off reflects real credit risk or overdone investor concerns. Readers will learn why mission-critical enterprise software, strong switching costs, proprietary data, and sponsor-backed innovation may help separate stronger borrowers from more vulnerable software companies.
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Direct lending enters 2026 with a notably supportive backdrop, underpinned by firm monetary and fiscal policy, deregulatory tailwinds, easing inflation, ample liquidity, and solid earnings. Despite recent volatility, 2025 featured healthy credit fundamentals and strong issuance in private direct lending. AI-related headlines have introduced fresh uncertainty, particularly among software borrowers, but much of the recent volatility appears sentiment-driven. In this Q&A, the North American Private Credit investment team cuts through the noise and outlines why they believe disciplined capital deployment, deep sponsor relationships, and a defensive focus on the middle market position their platform well for the year ahead.
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Markets may seem chaotic now, but we don’t see it that way. Our view is that we are witnessing a major structural change, one with a magnitude that might be observed once in 100 years. This type of structural change puts money in motion and provides an investment opportunity to get ahead of that money, not merely follow it.
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Discover why the availability of semi-liquid vehicles is rising across the alternative investment space, with the largest increase in private credit solutions.
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January opened the year with a notably calm macro backdrop and strong technical demand across fixed income markets. The Broad Markets Fixed Income Team explores.
Read More Use The BEAT™ as your timely resource for the markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.
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The 2026 outlook for emerging markets debt is bright, as inflation eases, currencies offer value, and investors seek non-dollar assets. The Emerging Markets Debt Team explains.
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In the third quarter, emerging markets (EM) debt markets continued their yearlong rally, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, easing monetary policy, strong country fundamentals and ongoing investor demand for non-U.S. assets. Looking ahead, positive fundamentals and favorable real yields versus developed markets point to a constructive outlook for EM debt.
Read More On October 1, the U.S. government entered a shutdown that stretched through month-end and into November. Beyond its immediate drag on activity, the greater casualty was information: the data flow that markets and policymakers depend on to gauge the health of the economy largely went dark.
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Since President Lee Jae-Myung took office earlier this year, the MSCI Korea Index has climbed 48% year-to-date (through September 30)—the strongest performance among major Asian indices. Investor enthusiasm has been fueled by the administration’s reform agenda and the bold pledge to deliver “KOSPI 5000.” The government’s early actions, such as reviving the Value-Up initiative and tightening governance rules, have clearly restored confidence after a turbulent 2024.
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With evolving stakeholder and regulatory requirements around ESG reporting, demand for technological solutions has grown. This presents opportunities for companies who can help corporate clients measure, manage and report their environmental footprint, particularly when it comes to issues such as carbon, deforestation and water. We engaged with two technology companies held across our portfolios for which we have identified sustainability solutions as a potentially financially material long-term growth driver.
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The global macro environment entering 2026 reflects a world adjusting to structurally higher real yields, reduced fiscal flexibility, and diverging monetary-policy paths.
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The global macro environment entering 2026 reflects a world adjusting to structurally higher real yields, reduced fiscal flexibility and diverging monetary-policy paths.
Read More Capital allocation is an essential part of creating value and is one of management's prime responsibilities. Not all senior executives know how to allocate capital effectively.
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Most investors are familiar with traditional investments, which include cash and long-only positions in publicly traded stocks and bonds. Alternative investments are comprised of more complex investments and include private strategies focused on illiquid holdings. Within the private alternatives universe, asset classes include private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure. Among these asset classes, private equity is one of the most rapidly growing with assets under management increasing more than 13x over the last two decades from $744 billion in 2004 to $9.7 trillion as of December 2024.1
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Advances in artificial intelligence are accelerating the transition of humanoid robots from long-term ambition to early industrial deployment.
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Use The BEAT as your timely resource for this month’s markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.
Read More Use The BEAT as your timely resource for this month’s markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.
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Insight on loan market fundamentals and the role of floating-rate loans within portfolios.
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An in-depth review of the US and European High Yield markets.
Read More Overview of the trends and developments in the muni bond markets.
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The balance of real estate risks and opportunities is shifting from broad macroeconomic factors—such as trade uncertainties, interest rates, and fiscal stimulus—to more granular, sector-specific, market-driven, and asset-level dynamics that will shape performance over the next 12 to 24 months.
Read More Despite geopolitical and economic uncertainty, infrastructure’s essential nature allows for better resilience across market cycles.
Read More Global bond markets recalibrated in November as investors processed familiar late-cycle signals and the Federal Reserve's evolving policy expectations shaped yields.
Read More Private credit continues to attract capital at a healthy clip, especially among individual investors who have gained access to the strategy for the first time. Semi-liquid vehicles for the wealth channel now command almost a third of the $1 trillion US direct lending market.
Read More As we enter 2026, private equity is at a key inflection point as it adapts to lessons learned and rapid pace of change in the last 12 months. One lesson re-learned is how resilient the asset class can be during tumultuous times. A new dynamic is the K-shaped nature of the economic recovery, including PE’s own industry recovery.
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The accelerating demand for power driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a dominant narrative in energy markets. Current International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts now suggest that by 2030 the power needed to run both new and existing AI data centres could surpass 945 Terawatt-hours (TWh), more than the annual consumption of Japan. That sounds staggering and before we accept such projections, it’s worth remembering how often similar predictions have missed the mark.
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In recent months, concerns have intensified that the rapid growth in artificial intelligence (AI) investment is becoming a “bubble.” This has coincided with a flurry of massive deals among the largest U.S. technology companies. The proliferation and potential implications of these deals for investors prompted the Eaton Vance (EV) equity department to conduct a “Bull vs. Bear” debate over AI funding.
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Overview of the trends and developments in the Agency MBS and Housing Markets.
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Private markets in India have become increasingly well-established, offering investors diverse opportunities to engage with the country's impressive growth trajectory. In 2024, India accounted for 20% of all private equity and venture capital investments in Asia, ranking just behind China.
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With so much uncertainty in markets and the political realm, one thing we can be relatively sure about is that people are getting older. We can forecast with considerable confidence approximately how many 80+ year olds there will be over the next decade, and we know how much wealth they currently control.
Read More The following views and perspectives are formed by the work of the Applied Equity Team in managing assets for investors.
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Private credit has enjoyed widespread adoption by institutional and individual investors in recent years, with direct lending franchises leading the charge. Yet, within the broader private credit space lies an underexplored but increasingly relevant strategy: growth credit.
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In recent months, investors have become preoccupied with the question: will advanced artificial intelligence (AI), be it generative (GenAI) or agentic, disrupt the data-rich industries that underpin our modern world? From software through consulting to information services, credit bureaux, exchanges and insurance brokers, few data-rich industries have escaped the market’s blanket derating.
Read More In-depth review of fundamentals and valuations across emerging markets debt.
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We highlight a landscape of cautious optimism in fixed income sectors, driven by central bank policies and market dynamics. While opportunities exist, particularly in emerging markets and corporate credit, investors must navigate a complex environment marked by macroeconomic uncertainties and policy divergences. Watch this video to find out more.
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Over the past twelve months, the MSIM Fixed Income team continued to leverage our US$220 billion AUM platform to have meaningful dialogues with bond issuers on ESG topics that we believe are most relevant to their business and financing activities.
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In this insightful roundtable originally published by Infrastructure Investors, Chris Ortega, Managing Director and Head of Americas, discusses how the Big Beautiful Bill Act is impacting every sector, from power to transportation, creating challenges but also opportunities.
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Amid a rapidly evolving landscape in health and wellness, GLP-1s are redefining the way millions approach weight loss, diet and even alcohol use. Initially used for diabetes treatment, these innovative therapies are now at the forefront of obesity care—capturing headlines and sparking debate across medical and consumer circles.
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U.S. stocks have dominated global financial markets for the last decade and a half, driven by robust earnings, a market rerating and the gravitational pull of a strong U.S. dollar (USD).
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We see a tug of war within markets, between the bull argument that AI will be visibly transformational to corporate profitability in the near term and/or the U.S. economy sharply accelerates, and the bear argument where these high expectations are not met.
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Today, the case for investing in direct lending is not only strong on a structural basis but especially timely, reinforced by interest rate dynamics, recovering deal activity, M&A demand, and the potential risk of a pick-up in public market volatility. Taken together, we believe these forces present a potentially compelling moment for capital allocation to direct lending.
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Advocates of tariffs insist that higher barriers will bring jobs home, yet U.S. manufacturing remains structurally uncompetitive. While China’s share of U.S. imports may have declined, its grip on critical goods, from rare minerals to electric-vehicle batteries, remains firm.
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Stablecoins have emerged as one of the fastest-growing segments in global finance, blending the stability of fiat currencies— primarily the U.S. dollar—with the efficiency and programmability of blockchain technology. These digital assets have scaled rapidly, acting as foundational scaffolding underpinning a new infrastructure for payments, settlement and value transfer across borders.
Read More The fixed income market was as “summer-y” as it gets this past month. Volatility in yields remained remarkably muted, and spreads continued to compress in a benign fashion—despite a brief spike following the early-month U.S. jobs data.
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Since the launch of Ozempic in 2017-18, GLP-1 drugs have gained social acceptance as an effective way to lose weight quickly. Looking ahead, GLP-1s are expected to become the biggest drug class in history, with annual sales projected to potentially top USD $100 billion over the next five years.
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In today’s environment, where geopolitical tensions threaten the cohesion of the global economy, building more resilient supply chains has become a strategic imperative.
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Now that the long-awaited Fed rate cut has arrived – to the tune of 25 bps – bond investors have the right to ask: So what? As managers of bank loans, here’s our answer: we see it as a good occasion to show why loans deserve consideration for a traditional bond portfolio, especially in this environment. Consider:
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A generational shift is unfolding across the global economy. At one end, millennials and Gen Z are gaining economic influence with their distinct preferences for technology, sustainability and different consumption patterns. At the other, aging populations, particularly Baby Boomers, are increasing their share of healthcare spending, financial assets and political influence.
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In the realm of private investments, the concept of performance fee netting has long been considered a beneficial strategy for investors. However, recent research challenges this conventional wisdom, suggesting that the benefits of fee netting are not as clear-cut as previously thought. This article delves into the complexities of performance fee netting, highlighting key insights from a comprehensive study that examines its impact on investors.
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Use The BEAT as your timely resource for this month’s markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.
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Mortgage-backed securities and securitized assets remain one of our highest conviction investment ideas across our multi-sector fixed income portfolios. Here are some areas where we are finding value, along with some potential risks.
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June was marked by a continuation of the risk-on sentiment that began earlier in the quarter, supported by resilient economic data, a modest decline in volatility, and easing geopolitical tension following the brief conflict between Israel and Iran.
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The current macroenvironment is volatile and uncertain with growth expected to moderate and diverge. Within this macro backdrop, real estate looks durable and downside-protected, particularly in sectors that are supported by long-term structural trends.
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The goal of this report is to discern the proper amount of cash a company should hold, which takes us into key topics around capital allocation and capital structure.
Read More Use The BEAT as your timely resource for this month’s markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.
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Critical industrial and manufacturing processes depend on the availability and quality of freshwater. As a result, disruptions in freshwater availability may pose financially material risks to investors. However, corporate disclosure and data remain a challenge due to lack of standardization and difficulties collecting data. In light of these limitations, Calvert utilizes a proprietary method to assess water risks at the sector and company level, while encouraging companies to coalesce to develop water reporting protocol similar to the Greenhouse Gas reporting protocol.
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Publishing an outlook in early April 2025 is a hostage to fortune, given the current fluid and fast-moving environment driven by the substantial uncertainties around the path of U.S. economic policy and its effects, not to mention the volatility of equity prices.
Read More Use The BEAT as your timely resource for this month’s markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.
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The race for electric vehicle (EV) leadership is shifting gears. In a world increasingly shaped by protectionism and tariffs, the short-term outlook for EVs may seem uncertain. Yet, much like the hum of an electric motor, the EV transition is quietly accelerating in emerging markets (EMs). Driven by policy support, innovation and affordability, EV models from EM manufacturers are offering an increasingly attractive value proposition to consumers, particularly to those in other EMs.
Read More Direct Lending is a type of Private Credit strategy that makes direct, illiquid loans to middle market companies outside of the traditional banking system. Direct Lending usually refers to first lien loans as well as unitranche loans that combine different debt classes or liens into a single loan.
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We’re in a charged and unpredictable landscape. East-West tensions simmer, the Middle East remains a powder keg, and the Russia-Ukraine war looks set to enter another harsh winter as tensions escalate. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump is to return to the White House, backed by an emboldened Republican party holding both the House and Senate. All eyes are on the potential economic and societal shifts this new administration may bring.
Read More The U.S. dollar strengthened throughout the month, gaining 2.6% against a basket of other currencies. Notably, it outperformed the New Zealand dollar by 5.4%, the Australian dollar by 5%, and the Japanese yen by 4.7%.
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The following views and perspectives are formed by the work of the Applied Equity Advisors team in managing assets for investors.
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As banks have gradually retreated from middle-market lending, and public capital markets have skewed larger and exhibited volatility, private credit has stepped in to fill the void. Private credit expanded to approximately $1.8 trillion at the start of 2024, up from $1.3 trillion in 2020, and is estimated to reach $2.3 trillion by 2028.1
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Use The BEAT as your timely resource for this month’s markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.
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As we step into 2025, a confluence of geopolitical, economic and generational shifts will impact markets. The anti-establishment sweep of 2024 brought anti-elitist and anti-immigration leaders to power, sparking a wave of protectionist policies - from tariffs to subsidies and sanctions. While many believe the new U.S. administration's tariff strategy will drive higher inflation, stronger rates and a surging U.S. dollar, history shows that market relationships are rarely so linear.
Read More Since September 2024, Chinese policymakers have focused on delivering a series of stimulus packages to inject new life into their struggling economy and boost share prices. This paper delves into how Beijing is addressing the challenges it faces. Without bold reforms, China’s economic future hangs in the balance.
Read More Use The BEAT as your timely resource for this month’s markets. Each edition gives you ideas and insights that show you how to navigate the current investment environment.
Read More Throughout this outlook, we aim to provide a comprehensive analysis of anticipated trends in fixed income markets, highlighting key areas of opportunity and caution for investors. We will discuss our views on economic conditions, bond yields, credit markets, currencies, and the major risks we believe may arise in the year ahead.
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Private credit expanded to approximately $1.5 trillion at the start of 2024, up from $1 trillion in 2020, and is estimated to soar to $2.6 trillion by 2029.[1] Amid tighter bank lending, borrowers continued to value the speed, certainty and flexibility of private credit solutions. Sponsored middle market loan activity remained relatively resilient during the past year, partly supported by demand for incremental or add-on financings.
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The investment environment to start the new year is quite interesting. Equity and fixed income markets appear to be fully valued and the Republican sweep in the U.S. could have global ramifications. China continues to struggle to find its footing, while AI might provide significant investment opportunities in alternative investing. The Portfolio Solutions Group looks at five key areas going into 2025.
Read More We believe value creation through operational enhancements will be crucial to drive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) growth and profitability.
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Some very smart investors are focused on finding, funding, and scaling companies that can really move the needle on climate impact. And the good news is that there is an outbreak of innovation in climate solutions—turning fish scales into plastic alternatives, capturing carbon from the air, submerging servers in liquid to cool them, or gene editing bananas to prevent them from browning easily. These are just a few examples of the plethora of solutions capturing our collective imagination and there is something very compelling about their potential to address major climate problems.
Read More As the global macro-economic environment continues to improve, the case for real estate investing has become more compelling. After a period of moderation and stabilization in 2024, we believe that 2025 will see a transition into the next upcycle. Inflation is trending down, interest rates are falling, and valuations are troughing. Equity markets, including public real estate investment trusts (REITs), are up materially over the last two years, yet private real estate valuations have been recovering slowly. Occupier demand remains uneven within and across all real estate sectors impacted by the economic cycle and longer-term structural trends.
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People have dreamed of autonomous driving for a long time, but the technology was never up to the task. The capabilities are now improving rapidly and the potential impact is massive, we believe we are on the cusp of a paradigm shift.
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Eight years ago, Saudi Arabia initiated an ambitious plan to transform its economy and reshape its global identity by 2030. Moving beyond its traditional role as the world’s top oil exporter, the Kingdom is positioning itself as a tourist destination as well as an emerging hub for international business and entertainment. Through its Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia earlier made strategic international investments in iconic French hotels, Hollywood studios and cutting-edge technology funds. But now, the country’s focus is to increase outlays at home.
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Morgan Stanley Capital Partners head Aaron Sack joins ION Analytics’ Giovanni Amodeo to talk about creating value in private equity investing, the future of middle market private equity and how it has changed over the last decade.
Read More It is critical for investors to assess corporate strategy, which explains how a firm builds a moat around its business that can lead to sustainable value creation.
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The initiation of rate cutting by the U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) in September helped lift the performance of EM debt across the local currency sovereign, hard currency sovereign and corporate EM debt segments in Q3 2024. While the overall performance was strong for each bond sector index, we continued to see meaningful variation at the individual country and corporate credit level across the broad-based and diverse EM debt asset class.
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If a social anthropologist were to study central bankers, she would probably conclude they are social beings who like to adhere to the norms and fashions set by the central banking community. They read the same research papers, attend each other’s conferences and do secondments to each other’s offices. Many have also attended the same universities. Not surprisingly, they often think similarly and implement similar policies along similar timelines.
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We explore the powers and perils of pattern recognition, which investors often cite as a basis for action.
Read More Most investors “price” the stocks of companies by using valuation multiples instead of “valuing” them based on future cash flows and fundamentals.
Read More Stock market concentration has increased sharply over the past decade, creating a challenging environment for active managers and also raising unease about the loss of diversification, the valuations of the largest stocks, and the effect of flows into index funds.
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In the 2010s, emerging market (EM) equities suffered their worst performance as an asset class since the 1930s. They returned a mere +49%, compared to an average of +203% in the previous seven decades. Emerging market countries ran high twin deficits, which led to currency depreciation and forced a cleanup of excesses from their over-leveraged balance sheets, a legacy of loose fiscal and monetary policies. The growth differential between emerging economies and the developed world, historically a key driver of relative equity returns, had also deteriorated in the last decade, a factor which is now turning in favor of EM. After lagging the developed markets (DM), especially U.S. equities which have been dominated by the performance of a handful of stocks, emerging markets are in a much stronger position to outperform developed countries this decade.
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In recent years, investor sentiment toward China has undergone a remarkable transformation, from maximum exposure to a significant scaling back of investments. This change unfolded against a backdrop of slower domestic growth and a complex geopolitical landscape. Yet, we believe current initiatives to improve shareholder returns suggest a new mindset may be on the horizon.
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Appetite for opportunities in private debt investing has been on the rise. In this dialogue, members of Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Private Credit leadership team, Jeff Levin (JL) and Mark Jochims (MJ), offer their perspective on the market. Jeff Levin is the Co-Head of Morgan Stanley's North America Private Credit team, where he serves on the Investment Committee and is the Portfolio Manager and the Head of Direct Lending. Mark Jochims serves as Head of European Private Credit and is a member of the Private Credit & Equity Executive Committee of Morgan Stanley.
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Mid-sized private equity investments have generated outsized relative revenue and EBITDA growth.
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Lauren Hochfelder, Co-CEO of Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing, joins host Joseph Halpern, Chief Investment Officer at Fountainhead, to discuss material disruptions to the global real estate market in the last few years as well as future trends and potential tailwinds for commercial real estate including shifts in the global supply chain and e-commerce.
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Amid today’s environment and ongoing growth in GP-led deals, rolling carry and putting additional capital at risk are no longer enough to guarantee alignment, says Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Nash Waterman.
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A slowing macroeconomy and elevated interest rate environment underscore the importance of investing in sectors and markets supported by structural forces that can provide growth. Industrial real estate, the major beneficiary of the e-commerce megatrend of the last decade, is positioned to again benefit from the next megatrend: the overhaul of global supply chains. While investors have had their pick of any product (bulk warehouses to support large-scale distribution, or small last-mile facilities to support same day delivery) and generate strong returns, the locations, product types and asset specifications required to support supply chain shifts are much more nuanced.
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Developed market yields were slightly lower over the month, as the market seemingly took the Fed’s word that it is still on track for three rate cuts this year and that the terminal rate would remain around the 3.25% level.
Read More April was another challenging month for fixed income returns, following higher than expected growth and inflation data from the United States. These higher prints caused markets to push back expectations for rate cuts in the U.S. and reduce the magnitude of cuts between now and the end of 2025.
Read More In this quarter’s webinar, our investment leaders provided an update on the signals observed in the latest private markets data, a summary of the latest private markets asset class views, and a deep dive into private credit, including addressing recent concerns regarding software exposure.
Read More Tony Charles, Head of Research and Strategy for Global Real Assets, recently sat down with Brian Niles, Co-Head of MSREI and Co-Head of NHREF to discuss the outlook for real estate and what it takes to succeed in today's complex environment.
Read More In this P&I Quick Take, Senior Director of Private Markets Editorial Strategy Josh Scott speaks with Rui de Figueiredo, Global Head of Investment and Client Solutions and CIO of the Solutions and Multi-Asset Group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
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Bob Huang of Morgan Stanley joins the InsuranceAUM.com podcast to discuss how a lower-rate environment could reshape insurance product innovation and portfolio strategy.
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Lauren Hochfelder, Co-CEO of Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing, joined Bloomberg The Close to discuss market expectations for real estate, what’s ahead in senior housing and net lease investing. Lauren also addresses the manufacturing build out that is driving increased demand within industrial real estate, another major focus area for Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing.
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Jeff Miller and Stephen “Fitz” Fitzsimmons of Morgan Stanley Investment Management discuss the evolving role of fixed income in insurance portfolios, from ALM optimization to opportunities in public and private credit.
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Join host Stewart Foley on the InsuranceAUM.com Podcast as we explore how BDC disclosures provide transparency into direct lending, asset quality, and market trends for insurance investors.
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Aaron Sack is the Head of Morgan Stanley Capital Partners.
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Ashwin Krishnan is the Managing Director, Co-Head of North American Private Credit, and Head of Opportunistic Credit at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and Jeff Levin is the Managing Director, Portfolio Manager, and Head of Direct Lending at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
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