Private credit remained resilient in the second quarter despite broader market volatility, with elevated base rates and wider spreads supporting attractive yields. Northleaf Capital Partners examines changing lender dynamics, borrower performance and the growing importance of disciplined underwriting as risks diverge across the market.
Learn More Private credit remained resilient in the second quarter despite broader market volatility, with elevated base rates and wider spreads supporting attractive yields. Northleaf Capital Partners examines changing lender dynamics, borrower performance and the growing importance of disciplined underwriting as risks diverge across the market.
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Private equity entered 2026 with improving visibility but a more demanding backdrop. Investors are increasingly focused on when liquidity will normalize; where returns will come from in a higher interest rate and more competitive environment; and how AI will reshape value creation and risk across portfolios.
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The first quarter of the year was characterized by a volatile and more uncertain backdrop mainly due to broader concerns around geopolitical tension, commodity prices and the potential for artificial intelligence (“AI”) disruption across a range of industries.
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2026 may be a compelling entry point for private equity secondaries. Discover how supply-demand tailwinds, market volatility, structural liquidity needs and improved transparency are shaping opportunities across the secondaries market.
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While the global macro environment remains highly uncertain, we believe the structural advantages inherent in private equity ownership and the value creation capabilities that top PE managers have developed, may offer durable sources of outperformance.
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Q3 saw an increase in deal flow with deal value rising 28% over Q2 25 and deal count rising modestly over the same period (see Figure 1). After a lull in deal activity in Q2 mainly caused by the tariff disruptions, the market rebounded as clarity improved around policy direction and impact.
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The third quarter of 2025 featured further evidence of broadly resilient performance from the private credit market, despite many economists pointing to mixed economic indicators and a growing sense of uncertainty within the market.
Read More The second quarter of 2025 was marked by heightened market turbulence following the U.S. tariff announcements on April 2.
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Trade policy tension in the wake of tariff announcements issued by the US administration on April 2 drove several weeks of market volatility, including short-term repricing of risk across credit markets. The market also experienced a temporary pullback in new issue activity, most notably in the liquid markets.
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While tariff policy remains fluid, the market generally believes that the risk of higher inflation and slower economic growth has increased. The path of monetary policy is also more uncertain and will largely depend on how tariffs work their way through the economy.
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The market risk outlook is generally improving with recent indicators pointing to a healthy economy and robust labour market in the US, though geopolitical and inflationary implications of potential policy shifts including trade barriers, remain an open question.
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In Q3-2024, the Federal Reserve began its anticipated rate-easing cycle with a 50-bps cut following two and a half years of tightening policy. Recent economic indicators have largely been positive, but the broader risk of economic softness has not dissipated. The market continues to project that medium to long-term base rates will remain elevated compared to the historical average.
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Jon McKeown of Northleaf Capital Partners joins the podcast to discuss how a portfolio-level approach can improve private credit outcomes and support better risk adjusted returns.
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Shane Feeney, Managing Director and Global Head of Secondaries at Northleaf Capital, shares how private equity secondaries work, why they offer strong risk‑adjusted returns, and how insurance investors can optimize portfolio construction in this evolving market.
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David Ross is the Managing Director & Head of Private Credit at Northleaf.
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