Third Quarter 2023 Market Outlook

Despite a series of rolling crises, the global economy avoided the worst of potential outcomes in the first half of 2023. The reprieve reframes our outlook for the second half of the year and beyond.

Our continued focus on the elevated level of yields assumes newfound importance with the latest increase in developed market interest rates. While this further enhances the potential for total returns, the second-quarter’s performance demonstrates that those returns won’t occur linearly over the short term; they will accrue for those with longer-term time horizons.

In “Final Stages of Hikes, First Stages of New Bull Market,” Robert Tipp, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds, explains why the young bull market may run further in the second half of the year, particularly given the expectations for lower interest-rate volatility.

“The Cycle Extends Further: What May Follow,” by Daleep Singh, Chief Global Economist and Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, details our updated set of global economic scenarios and highlights the changing nature of key structural factors within the global economy.

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