MetLife Investment Management -Tue, 06/17/2025 - 16:13

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Chartbook June 2025

Executive Summary:

We were a year into the CRE recovery when April 2’s broad-based tariffs landed; policy-driven volatility likely to continue this summer and beyond.
Valuations remain compelling: over the next 12 months, we forecast 4.5% value growth in self-storage, 4% growth in retail, 2.0% growth in apartment, 2.0% growth in industrial, and 0.5% growth in office. Value growth should accelerate throughout 2026 as the construction completion void accelerates.
Construction costs, immigration restrictions, and NIMBYism are compounding housing affordability pressures — a spillover into CRE is likely next year.
Highest-conviction themes: net-lease retail, independent-living seniors housing, medical office and select residential segments.
Use caution in: ground up development (all sectors), value-add strategies (all sectors), student housing, full-service hotels, grocery-anchored retail.

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With more than 150 years of heritage, we deliver stability, disciplined risk oversight, and aligned investment strategies purpose-built for insurers. Our conviction-led, specialized teams span public and private markets, targeting dependable income and long-term total return. Recognized by Pensions & Investments as one of the world's Top 10 third-party insurance asset managers, we combine scale and expertise to help insurers address increasingly complex investment challenges. From strategic asset allocation to innovative, capital-efficient portfolio construction, our dedicated insurance specialists design solutions around each insurer’s unique objectives. Backed by on-the-ground expertise in 19 countries, we navigate regulatory and capital constraints with confidence across life, health, P&C and reinsurance.

MetLife Investment Management
One MetLife Way
Whippany, NJ 07981

Madhavi Chugh, CFA
Global Co-Head of Insurance Solutions
madhavi.chugh@metlife.com
(609) 216-6691

Jeannine Heal, CFA
Global Co-Head of Insurance Solutions
jeannine.heal@pinebridge.com
(732) 778-4734

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