MetLife Investment Management

Investment Strategy Insights: Schrodinger’s Strait: Toward a Partial Reopening

The situation in the Middle East deteriorated further than many expected following the June Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). However, the recent escalation should not be mistaken for a complete breakdown in diplomacy. Instead, developments increasingly resemble a low-intensity phase of conflict in which both sides are attempting to re-establish leverage before returning to negotiations.

Capital Market Line: From Inflation Shock to Productivity Shock

Markets have navigated a series of inflationary shocks over the past few years, including Covid, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions, including most recently the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While disagreements linger between the U.S. and Iran, neither has shown the appetite for full-fledged war. 

Selecting Multifamily Markets for the Next Cycle

Drivers of multifamily performance are evolving. As market outcomes become more differentiated, local fundamentals and market selection are expected to play a larger role in shaping future investment performance.

2026 Midyear Asia Equity Outlook: Resilience, Reform and the Broadening AI Cycle

Asia’s AI opportunity is expanding beyond chips into power, infrastructure and advanced manufacturing. With structural growth intact but market leadership uneven, disciplined stock selection may be key to finding the next winners in Asian equities.

A New Investment Playbook for An Unruly World

MetLife Investment Management examines how investors may need to rethink long-held assumptions about geopolitics, the U.S. dollar and developed market fiscal strength. The article highlights why a more fragmented, multipolar world could require a new investment playbook built around supply shocks, fiscal risk and geopolitical analysis.

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q3 2026

Markets are refocusing on fundamentals as geopolitical noise fades. This Q3 2026 outlook highlights resilient growth, persistent inflation and opportunities in high-quality sectors. Discover where disciplined, income-focused investors can find value.

2026 Midyear Multi-Asset Outlook: From AI Promise to Delivery

Our midyear message is one of constructive realism: pro-risk but not complacent. We favor equities over fixed income, remain selective in credit and believe investors should diversify their diversifiers, as growth tilts north, and bonds become less dependable for equity diversification.

Beyond the Pitch: Private Capital Funds Sports Infrastructure and Operations

Private capital is fueling sports growth, offering seniority, diversification and contractual cash flows, while media rights and year-round venue use support resilient income.

Leveraged Finance Asset Allocation Insights: Navigating the AI Credit Divide

Our credit outlook remains split along a stark AI faultline: technology hardware and utility power providers continue to rally on data center expansion, while enterprise software and tech-enabled business services face structural revenue erosion and margin pressure.

It’s Time to Take Another Look at Core Fixed Income

Core fixed income is regaining its role as a potential portfolio stabilizer. In today’s higher-yield, more volatile environment, it can offer attractive income, diversification and capital preservation, especially when paired with active management focused on consistent, risk-adjusted returns.

Inflation Squeezes Consumers and Producers Alike

Inflation isn’t just a headline, it’s spreading through the supply chain. Energy costs are lifting producer and import prices, increasing the risk of persistent inflation. Even if energy pressures ease, underlying inflationary momentum is likely to remain.

After the Annuity: Managing the Effects of Pension Lift-Outs

Retiree lift outs are reshaping today’s pension plans. Explore what happens after the annuity purchase and how plan sponsors can manage shifting risks through thoughtful modeling, asset choices and ongoing plan oversight.

U.S. Housing Chartbook May 2026

U.S. home sales are slowing as higher mortgage rates and softer labor markets weigh on demand. Our latest U.S. Housing Chartbook explores price outlooks and regional impacts for investors.

Q1 2026 Investment Grade Corporate Market Review and Outlook

MetLife Investment Management’s “Q1 2026 Investment Grade Corporate Market Review and Outlook” highlights a volatile start to the year driven by policy shifts, geopolitical tensions and elevated issuance. Despite increased uncertainty, credit markets remained resilient as higher yields continued to support investor demand.

Infrastructure Debt: A Compelling Private Credit Portfolio Addition 

Infrastructure debt is gaining attention as a way for investors to potentially access long-term growth while emphasizing capital preservation, resilient income and diversification within private credit portfolios.

Q1 2026 Emerging Markets Debt Review and Outlook

Despite heightened geopolitical risk and inflation concerns, Emerging Markets continue to show resilience. Stronger balance sheets, improving policy frameworks and attractive valuations support EM’s role as a source of potential income and diversification in global portfolios.

Q1 2026 Private Credit Quarterly Review and Outlook

Private credit showed resilience in Q1 2026 with stable spreads, strong issuance and continued demand across private placements, asset-based finance and infrastructure, driven by disciplined structuring and selective risk.

Factory Reset: U.S. Manufacturing Turns Up

After years of contraction, U.S. manufacturing is showing early signs of an inflection point. Improved activity, rising production, and stronger investment point to a reset — one led by capital spending, not consumption.

Q1 2026 Short Duration Commentary

Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East reshaped markets in Q1. Higher energy prices drove volatility, pushed yields higher and tested credit spreads — creating improved rate opportunities while reinforcing the need for quality and selectivity.

Q1 2026 Equity Market Review

Equity markets entered the year with renewed momentum, supported by improving economic data and fiscal tailwinds. However, rising geopolitical tensions introduced heightened volatility and reshaped market leadership as the quarter progressed. Explore our full commentary for more insight on the equity markets.

Iran Conflict Update: Emerging Market Sovereign Implications

More than four weeks into the Iran conflict, markets are increasingly focused on how long it may last and what comes next. While the conflict is geographically concentrated, the market impact has been global, driving clear differentiation among emerging market sovereigns based on energy exposure, external buffers, fiscal flexibility and policy credibility. In this environment, fundamentals are once again driving outcomes.

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation – Q2 2026

Our quarterly Relative Value and Tactical Asset Allocation combines insights from our investment teams and the Global Economic and Market Strategy team to assess relative value across major asset classes.

U.S. Industrial Real Estate Rent Drivers: From the E-Commerce Era to the Automation Era

Industrial rent drivers are evolving as population density, highway access, power availability and automation readiness reshape demand for modern logistics facilities.

The Long Road to a U.S. Housing Recovery

The U.S. housing market continues to face a challenging path forward, and MetLife Investment Management’s Global Economic & Market Strategy team breaks down why in our latest update, “The Long Road to a U.S. Housing Recovery.” We explore how structural supply constraints, persistent affordability pressures, and broader macro uncertainty are shaping the market’s trajectory, despite recent rate cuts.

Leveraged Finance Asset Allocation Insights: Markets Hit an AI Inflection Point

The leveraged finance market is currently grappling with an “AI inflection point,” where the early promise of greater efficiency is giving way to a more uncertain outlook, with potential AI-related pressures on revenues and margins.

Investment Implications of the Iran Conflict

The post-strike scenario is thus far playing out largely as might be expected, including Iran’s retaliation, which has hit Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries as it attempts to inflict a cost on the campaign while generating credible deterrence.

2026 Investment Grade Credit Outlook: A Turning Point in a Familiar Market?

In the early months of 2026, the IG credit market looks much as it did over the prior two years. Yields remain elevated, offering investors compelling carry, while spreads sit near multi-decade tights — levels last visited in the mid-1990s.

Q4 2025 Private Credit Quarterly Review and Outlook

We highlight a resilient and active market environment supported by strong issuance, solid investor demand and stable macroeconomic conditions.

Q4 2025 Investment Grade Corporate Market Review and Outlook

The U.S. fixed income market remained resilient through late 2025 despite economic uncertainty and data disruptions from the federal shutdown. Our latest commentary highlights the key dynamics shaping investment grade credit markets as we head into 2026.

Q4 2025 Emerging Markets Debt Review and Outlook

Falling global rates, a softer USD and stable commodities lifted performance across EM sectors. Stronger EM fundamentals continued to outpace developed markets. With growth momentum carrying into 2026, disciplined investors may find compelling opportunities ahead.

Emerging Markets: Uncovering Key Alpha Drivers Amid Shifting Global Dynamics

Emerging Markets (EM) enter 2026 on the heels of an exceptional 2025 — a year defined by strong total returns and resilient fundamentals despite global volatility.

Q4 2025 Equity Market Review

After a volatile start in 2025, equity markets recovered as policy risks eased. Improving earnings and shifting investor preferences reignited small cap performance. Supportive valuations and growth tailwinds position small caps for 2026.

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Chartbook January 2026

New opportunities could emerge as construction pipelines reset, financial conditions gradually ease, and policy dynamics continue to evolve.

Winners and Losers at the All-K Corral

Economic growth through the third quarter of 2025 came in above expectations and will likely end the year on a strong note. At the same time, the K-shaped economy is more present than ever: even outside the consumer.

2026 Emerging Market Debt Outlook: Strengths Endure

The factors that helped emerging market debt outperform other public bond markets in 2025 – including resilient exports, falling inflation, and accommodative monetary policy – should persist in 2026, and though the magnitude of expected returns may be lower, we believe investors can have confidence in increasing their EM debt exposures.

Q4 2025 Short Duration Commentary

With highlights including another quarter-point cut in the federal funds policy rate at the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) mid-month Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, a general upward drift in most asset markets and global interest rates tracking higher, December closed out an event-filled year.

2026 Multi-Asset Outlook: Back to Micro

We are optimistic that U.S. markets will likely resume their leadership positions in 2026, particularly as AI investment continues.

2026 Fixed Income Outlook: Stay Calm and Keep Your Carry On

Our more optimistic, if still cautious, view is that credit markets and their infrastructure remain solid and will be buoyed by improving economic conditions in 2026, driven by supportive fiscal and monetary policy, U.S. tax cuts and deregulation, and, critically, ongoing AI expansion — a key area to watch.

2026 Equity Outlook: Alpha in the AI Age

Global equities reached new highs in 2025, driven by the “Magnificent 7” tech giants, yet earnings results more broadly have yielded positive surprises. We see market opportunities extending well beyond tech in 2026, with agility and innovation critical for generating alpha, and active investors should find opportunities to capitalize on market mispricings as earnings growth broadens.

2026 Investment Grade Private Credit: Annual Review and Outlook

Investment grade private credit enters 2026 with steady supply and healthy investor demand, creating a constructive yet selective outlook. Elevated rates and shifting sector dynamics underscore the need for disciplined underwriting and a focus on risk-adjusted opportunities.

MetLife Investment Management Completes Acquisition of PineBridge Investments

Accelerating growth in asset management is a top priority for MetLife in its New Frontier strategy. The acquisition brings together MIM’s institutional strength and scale with PineBridge’s global footprint and deep specialization to position MIM as a top-tier diversified global asset manager.

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation - Q1 2026

MetLife Investment Management (MIM)’s Global Economic & Market Strategy team expects a below-potential growth environment with some consumer cohorts under pressure.

A New Dawn in Real Estate: 2026 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Outlook

What are the effects on real estate from K-shaped household income growth, and AI effects on the labor market? Risk for select office and retail segments, although office is still priced too low in select markets/segments. A tailwind for select residential. | How long do multifamily margins compress in the Sun Belt? We expect late 2027.

Q3 2025 Investment Grade Corporate Market Review and Outlook

MetLife Investment Management’s investment grade corporate credit platform delivered strong results in Q3 2025, supported by resilient investor demand, renewed appetite for duration and the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward rate cuts. Quarterly issuance reached $397 billion — 23% above the four-year average — with September’s $214 billion total marking a record.

U.S. Economy: All Noise and No Signal?

ISM data suggest that inflation pressure may increase in the near future. Recent ADP data showed job gains, but growth was limited to larger firms in specific sectors.

Q3 2025 Private Credit Quarterly Review and Outlook

MetLife Investment Management originated approximately $11.5B across private credit markets in Q3 2025, driven by strong investor demand and disciplined execution across corporate private placements, infrastructure debt and asset-based finance.

Short Duration Commentary Q3 2025

The overarching macro tone is one of cautious optimism. Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, global markets have shown resilience. China’s GDP forecast has been upgraded, and Europe remains stable but vulnerable to fiscal pressures.

Economic Monthly: Global Outlook 2026

U.S. growth should stay steady, but labor market risks persist. Europe and the U.K. face tariff headwinds, but we expect modest recovery. China’s growth is expected to remain subdued while Japan’s outlook is driven by domestic demand and tech investment.

Public Market Signals for Private Real Estate Investors Part II: Risk Assessment

Real estate investors and managers frequently rely on qualitative market risk assessments but, in many cases, do not give appropriate consideration to quantitative assessments that are readily available. Put and Call options on REITs provide forward-looking risk indicators that incorporate both historical property sector trends and views on the outlook.

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation – Q4 2025

MetLife Investment Management (MIM)’s Global Economic & Market Strategy team expects turbulence in growth resulting from U.S. policy vacillations to continue to drive expectations for global activity and inflation risks

Troubled Times for U.S. Manufacturers

Manufacturing jobs have been in decline for the last four months as firms focus on reducing headcount and are not filling open positions.

MIM U.S. Housing Chartbook September 2025

Housing supply is tight in the Midwest and Northeast; inventory is building up in the Sun Belt

Q2 2025 Private Credit Quarterly Review and Outlook

MetLife Investment Management originated $3.4B across private credit in Q2 2025, executing 63 transactions across corporate, infrastructure and asset-based finance. Average spreads of ~201 bps over UST exceeded public benchmarks by over 120 bps, reflecting strong investor demand and disciplined execution.

Mo’ Money, Mo’ Problems

The Treasury is expected to issue more bills instead of coupon issuance going forward, and that may put more pressure on the Fed in its goal to align its portfolio composition with overall Treasury issuance

Q2 2025 Investment Grade Corporate Market Review & Outlook

Despite macro headwinds — elevated tariffs, geopolitical tensions and weaker economic data — credit spreads tightened during Q2, with excess returns bouncing back after April’s sell-off. Strong technicals, persistent demand for yield and moderate supply drove the rally, particularly in intermediate maturities.

Global Risks 2025 Midyear Update

We expect global economic risks from U.S. policy changes to remain high, as we expect little domestic resistance to the U.S. administration’s ever-shifting policies.

Emerging Markets Debt: Is It What Your Asset Allocation Needs?

Emerging Markets (EM) may be uniquely positioned to help portfolios with income and return potential within a world of many changes. One supportive tailwind for Emerging Markets Debt (EMD) is the fading of U.S. exceptionalism.

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q3 2025

We anticipate slower growth and sticky inflation

Chicago Multifamily: Fundamentals Outpacing Perceptions

Chicago commercial real estate has underperformed over the last decade. The gross unlevered return across all property types averaged 3.8% versus a 5.8% U.S. average, and the underperformance continued during the 3Q 2022 – 3Q 2024 commercial real estate (CRE) downturn.

The Beige Book Goes into the Red as U.S. Growth Stalls

2025 View on U.S. Pensions with Alternative Fixed Income Approaches

Plan sponsors face a unique set of challenges that require a more dynamic approach to asset allocation. In this Q&A, the experts at MetLife Investment Management (MIM) explore how the interest rate environment and market volatility are prompting sponsors to pursue de-risking strategies by increasing and diversifying fixed-income allocations.

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Chartbook June 2025

We were a year into the CRE recovery when April 2’s broad-based tariffs landed; policy-driven volatility likely to continue this summer and beyond.

Public Market Signals for Private CRE Investors: Monitoring Pricing in an Uncertain Market

The ongoing trade war has added volatility to financial markets.

Q1 2025 Investment Grade Private Credit Review & Outlook

MetLife Investment Management originated over $3.75B across investment grade private credit markets in Q1 2025, driven by strong investor demand and disciplined execution across corporate, infrastructure, and structured debt.

Q1 2025 Taxable Municipals Market Review and Outlook

Q1 returns in the taxable municipal market were strong—but not for the reasons you might expect. While falling Treasury yields boosted performance, policy-related risks and technical pressures raised questions about where valuations go from here.

Q1 2025 Emerging Markets Review and Outlook

Emerging markets have entered 2025 navigating a new phase of geopolitical and economic volatility. With the Trump administration’s trade-first agenda introducing fresh uncertainty—and a Fed now facing the prospect of stagflation—EMD investors are weighing both disruption and opportunity.

EM Sovereigns Amid U.S. Tariff Policy Resiliency Study – May 2025

During periods of external shock like the Global Financial Crisis (2008) or COVID-19 (2020), the macro variables that impact EM sovereigns can change suddenly and dramatically, necessitating a rethink of our credit views.

The U.S. Labor Market: Caution or Confidence?

This month we investigate the details of the labor market for signs of weakness.

Tariff Impacts and Infrastructure Debt’s Resilience

Infrastructure debt provides investors with access to a defensive asset class with lower correlation to economic cycles than general corporate debt given the essential nature of infrastructure assets.

Short Duration Q1 Recap, Portfolio Actions & Outlook

Our quarterly update examines the market turbulence of Q1 and how short duration strategies navigated the challenges—and opportunities—of heightened macro uncertainty.

Deglobalization. What’s Next?

We believe the Post-World War II, U.S.-dominated world order of globalization is quickly coming to an end. Between the possibilities of diversification, division, and disengagement that we discussed in our piece on globalization several years ago, the Trump Administration appears to be pursuing a disengagement strategy. Everyone – domestic players in the U.S. included – is now working to accommodate a less globally engaged U.S.

Cold Storage: A Niche Property Heating Up

The cold storage real estate segment continues to “institutionalize,” and we expect this trend will help push capitalization rates down, and values up, in the sector.

Q4 2024 Investment Grade Private Credit Review & Outlook

Our current “Investment Grade Private Credit Review & Outlook” recaps 2024 in the corporate private placement, global infrastructure debt and private structured credit markets. We highlight origination and activity in each IG market and look ahead to 2025. Find out:

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation – Q2 2025

Market Strategy anticipates slower growth and desynchronized central bank policies.

QT or Not QT? – Part Two

As the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balance sheet normalizes, an important step will be to structure the System Open Market Account (SOMA) portfolio to more closely match the composition of outstanding Treasury debt.

A Return to Uncertainty

We believe that even though 2025 is off to a rough start, firms and consumers will continue to adapt, and growth will stabilize over the year. Many of the negative impacts of lower activity in the beginning of the year (weaker consumer spending, weaker consumer confidence and high imports to front-run tariffs) are idiosyncratic and have the potential to be offset in subsequent quarters, resulting in overall growth that is healthy, albeit weaker than 2024.

4Q24 Investment Grade Corporate Market Review and Outlook

Our “Q4 Investment Grade Corporate Market Review & Outlook” examines how Treasury yields and corporate spreads reacted to a busy quarter of market-moving events, highlighted by President Trump’s election. We chart portfolio attribution for Q4 and 2024, then look ahead to catalysts that could push credit spreads wider in 2025.

The Return of Mercantilism? Shifting Goalposts on Trade

President Trump made several changes to trade policy in his first term, and U.S. firms have adjusted accordingly. Trade exposure has shifted away from China, and investment abroad has shifted toward Europe and the Western Hemisphere.

Emerging Markets Debt Restructurings: A Year of Resilience and Innovation

Between 2017 and 2022, 11 Emerging Markets (EM) sovereigns defaulted, representing approximately 15% of the Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI) weight taken 12 months prior to default. These defaults can be categorized into three distinct groups based on the catalysts that drove each country into default: pre-COVID self-induced, COVID-induced, and war-induced.

Private Debt Opportunities in Emerging Markets: Insights for Building Insurance Portfolios

Private debt markets in emerging economies may offer unique opportunities. They can help insurance-industry investors to seek yield enhancement, diversification and less-correlated returns compared to traditional public debt.

Short Duration Q4 Recap, Portfolio Actions & Outlook

Our latest Short Duration Quarterly Commentary recaps Q4 2024 and shares our sector outlook for short duration bonds. With the Trump administration shifting policy expectations for 2025 and a cautious Federal Reserve.

Q4 2024 Emerging Markets Review & Outlook

Our current Emerging Markets Review and Outlook recaps Q4 in emerging market debt and looks ahead to 2025, with the Federal Reserve’s path forward unclear and markets bracing for the uncertainty of Trump administration policy changes.

U.S. Housing Chartbook January 2025

The U.S. consumer remains strong on the back of a healthy labor market, and inflation is moving back to target, albeit slowly.

Thematic Engagement: 2024 Scope 3 Emissions

Scope 3 emissions are becoming increasingly important as issuers face growing pressure to report and reduce these emissions. In our latest report, we examine how issuers across public fixed-income and private credit sectors are tackling Scope 3 data challenges and setting decarbonization targets.

Trump 2.0: Back to the Future?

By the end of this month, President Trump will enter the White House for his second term with an economic backdrop quite different from that of his first term. While the policies he advocates for are of a similar style this time around, the entirely different economic situation mean that those policies may have a different effect than they would have had in his first term. 

2025 Real Estate Outlook: Tipping Point

The post-COVID years have been characterized by dramatic shifts in economic conditions, capital markets and the geopolitical landscape. No two years have been quite the same, and uncertainty in the outlook for the economy in general, and commercial real estate in particular, has been historically elevated. 

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q1 2025

Our latest Relative Value and Tactical Asset Allocation report offers our take on key markets and sectors. While we anticipate a low risk of a U.S. recession, policy uncertainty opens up a wider range of possible outcomes.

Pitfalls & Mitigants of Climate Assessment Software

Physical climate risk incorporates two broad hazard categorizations: acute and chronic. Climate risk software and analysis tools typically forecast each hazard individually and across multiple timeframes and scenarios.

Global Risks 2025: Turning Points?

As the dust from the U.S. election settles, the new year brings new challenges. Tariffs are likely to be the dominant theme early in 2025. Our base case is for the incoming Trump administration to impose substantial — albeit not universal — tariffs on most countries.

M&A in 2025: Opportunity, with a side of Scrutiny

Governments, businesses and consumers all took advantage of a decade of free money. Bond markets are now multiple times larger than before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), having soared to record levels. Economic activity and most financial markets benefited. As central banks around the world swiftly raised interest rates to fight inflation, significant challenges are emerging, especially concerning the ability to refinance or repay substantial volumes of maturing debt.

QT or Not QT?

Our macro strategists assess what rightsizing the Fed’s balance sheet in 2025 could mean for its holdings in mortgage-backed securities, Treasury notes and Treasury bills. The composition will significantly impact different asset classes, the shape of the yield curve, and the amount of new stimulus created each month.

Residential Whole Loans: Key Insights for Insurance Investors

Our new paper, "Residential Whole Loans: Key Insights for Insurance Investors," highlights the strategic advantages of this asset class, including improved underwriting standards and attractive risk-adjusted returns. 

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE): Back on the EM radar

Until recently, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) sovereigns were not on the radar for most Emerging Markets investors searching for yield.  Learn why MetLife Investment Management sees an opportunity to gain exposure to the region and its respective sovereign curves in our analysis of Central and Eastern Europe. 

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Chartbook November 2024

Our latest chartbook offers a compelling overview and outlook for the current U.S. real estate market, including statistics on real estate pricing, apartment construction starts and appraisal lag. 

Investment Grade Spreads: Tighter for Longer?

As part of MetLife Investment Management’s ongoing “A World in Debt” series, we continue to explore key trends across various sectors of the financial markets. In "Investment-Grade Spreads: Tighter for Longer?”, we navigate the 'overheating' stage of the credit cycle, this paper provides an in-depth analysis of the economic indicators influencing tight spreads, lessons from past overheating periods and projections for the future of credit markets. 

3Q24 Corporate Market Review & Outlook

We believe our security selection driven approach will provide enough ammunition to generate relative outperformance – just as it has throughout 2024

Election Economics

A resounding victory sweeps President (and President-Elect) Trump back to the White House. The substantial-for-modern-times majority in the Senate along with the popular vote means that the second Trump administration has more of a mandate than the first one.

Q3 2024 Investment Grade Private Credit Review & Outlook

MetLife Investment Management’s Private Capital Group manages $135.5 billion in assets as of September 30, 2024. With over 100 years of investing in the asset class, MIM offers exceptional access to investment grade deals with global scale, longstanding market relationships and approachable expertise. Our standing in the markets for infrastructure, corporate private placement and private structured credit often enables us to fund an entire deal or become its cornerstone, which can lead to larger allocations for our clients. Informing our investment decisions is a team-based risk culture with a time-tested approach to managing risk, combined with proprietary research and layered independent oversight. More than 70 seasoned industry specialists collaborate to develop customized portfolio solutions that help meet our clients’ needs.

Q3 2024 Emerging Markets Review and Outlook

The markets showed considerable resilience during the third quarter (Q3), with assets in Emerging Markets (EM) responding favorably to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) initial rate cut of the cycle. The Fed maintained a consistently dovish tone throughout the quarter, and the softening data supported the 50-basis point (bps) rate reduction at the September meeting. The 2/10s yield curve finally entered positive territory for the first time in over two years, as further rate cuts seem likely. The 10-year Treasury yield experienced an 84-bps peak-to-trough movement within the quarter, ultimately finishing 62 bps lower at 3.78%.

ABS: Normalizing Delinquent Behavior

With high volatility, geopolitical dynamics, the Presidential election and Federal Reserve’s course of action keeping the market on the fence, MetLife Investment Management recaps the third quarter for short duration bonds and shares our year-end outlook, sector by sector.

Ag Finance: Too Much of a Good Thing: The Paradox of Perfect Weather

Rain makes grain, and in 2024, crop growers in the U.S. received plenty of it. When agricultural commodities become too abundant, prices decline alongside sector profitability. Although drought conditions pose considerable challenges, they also create notable opportunities for U.S. crop producers, making it a potentially more favorable environment to operate in.

Global Outlook 2025

In 2025, we believe the core question to dominate economic discussions is where the unobservable natural rate, r*, lies and when central banks should stop cutting. Find out what else our Macro Strategists think will drive marks in 2025. Read our latest Economic Monthly:

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q4 2024

We are anticipating a stable macro environment in the near future, with some uncertainties stemming from U.S. elections and monetary policy. We continue to look for spreads to mostly remain range bound, with a low chance of further tightening. With a low risk of recession, a carry strategy is preferred in the next quarter or two, meaning we prefer investments with attractive yields, while remaining cautious about potential weakness.

Long Duration Bonds in Public Pensions

For over 15 years, public pensions have relied on long duration investment grade bonds like US Treasuries and corporates to achieve their risk reduction goals. MetLife Investment Management’s new white paper examines the chief benefits: capital preservation, reliable cash flow and liquidity, capital efficiency, excess value returns and more. Learn all about the diverse opportunity set in our in-depth analysis, Long Duration Bonds in Public Pensions.

Rate Expectations

Read our latest Economic Monthly to find out how we think Fed Funds cuts could play out and why - despite some headwinds - there are a number of factors supporting consumer resilience.

U.S. Real Estate Chartbook

This chartbook presents a compelling snapshot of the current state of the U.S. real estate market, highlighting signs of emerging stability and solid underlying fundamentals. It reveals that certain segments, with appealing valuations and consistent demand, are exhibiting potential for substantial growth.

Q2 2024 Emerging Markets Review and Outlook

Emerging Markets (EM) ended the second quarter (Q2) with minimal movement from a total return perspective in the hard currency space, while the dollar continued to strengthen versus its peers. Risk appetite remained largely supportive with volatility remaining suppressed, with high yielding hard currency assets the significant outperformer year-to-date (YTD). US data was mixed with April’s strength being offset by some late quarter weakness. US rates peaked at 4.7% early in the quarter only to end at 4.4%, 20 basis points higher quarter-over-quarter. 

What, Me Worry?

The markets had their fun in the first week of August, responding to the Sahm Rule being triggered alongside perceived excess hawkishness by the FOMC. Download our latest Economic Monthly to find out why we think generalized anxieties are driving the market overreaction.

U.S. Treasuries in the Post-Pandemic Era: More Volatility, Higher Yields

We expect US Treasury issuance to continue to exceed $2 trillion annually in coming years, four times the pre-pandemic average – even as global demand flattens. In the first of our ongoing series, “A World in Debt,” our Macro Strategy team examines why we expect these changes to lead to higher yields and volatility. What are other implications of rising supply and shifting demand?

Trickle Down Economics to the Rescue?

The latest Economic Monthly from the MIM Macro team drills down into the ongoing strength of the US consumer sector.

Uruguay: How Governance Drives Fundamentals, Sovereign Ratings, and Credit Risk Premium

We believe the influence of governance on Uruguay’s credit profile and risk premium has been positive. The country has a long history of strong institutions and consensus-based policy-making tradition that leads to durable policy decisions and supports social cohesion.s.

Beyond the Matched Book: How MIM Differentiates in Securities Lending

MetLife Investment Management’s Alex Strickler, Head of Securities Lending, explains how our differentiated “mismatched book” approach can yield incremental income for borrowers comfortable with a measured level of interest rate and credit risk.

The Electric Vehicle Transition: Long-Term Outcomes and Short-Term Uncertainties

“A clear destination without a roadmap” captures the many complexities – and opportunities – of the megatrend transition to a largely electric road transport future. In this new far-ranging analysis, MetLife Investment Management’s Fixed Income team examine key challenges and uncertainties facing the auto industry’s legacy OEMs, new players and policymakers.

The Role of Private Credit in the Transition to A Low Carbon Economy

Global energy transition to a low carbon future will require a record $8 trillion investment annually from 2024 to 2050. 70% of that transition finance is projected to come from the private sector.

Strength or Softness?

MetLife Investment Management continues to see consumers willing and able to spend for the next several months. While credit card delinquencies have risen dramatically, other loan types appear healthy. Weaker GDP is more than offset by stronger private domestic final purchases (PDFP).

Shifting Gears: The Acceleration of Prime Auto Securitization

Auto loan securitizations accounted for over 57% of $256 billion in new ABS volume in 2023. Despite rising interest rates and regulatory changes encouraging banks and credit unions to monetize their prime auto loan portfolios, investment opportunities persist for client portfolios. We map out the analysis in Shifting Gears: The Acceleration of Prime Auto Securitization.

Real Estate Debt: Navigating the New Frontier

Commercial mortgages are at the intersection of evolving capital market conditions, shifting real estate fundamentals and complex regulatory landscapes. Today’s investment conditions in the commercial mortgage sector are unique, both historically and compared to other institutional asset classes.

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q3 2024

Global manufacturing activities continued appear stable (see Figure 2), thanks to expansions in output, new orders, and employment. U.S.—We are expecting no recession in the United States in 2024 but look for growth to slow to 2% and inflation to remain near 3%. We are looking for a period of renewed economic volatility driven by a variety of domestic and global factors.

Global Risks Midyear Update 2024: Hanging Together

Developed-market economies are still hanging together. In our December forecast, we were too pessimistic about growth overall and too optimistic about the decline in inflation in the U.S. and the U.K. Our short-term rates forecasts remain mostly unchanged, with the major exception being the U.S., where we were too optimistic about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ability to cut rates. U.S. debt sustainability concerns faded but could reassert themselves at the end of the year when the debt ceiling debate will begin anew.

Flying Blind

The U.S. Federal Reserve has reduced the pace of quantitative tightening with a new monthly roll off cap of $25 billion of Treasury securities, down from $60 billion (Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, May 2024).

Are We There Yet? The Road to Recovery for CRE

Stickier than expected inflation and robust economic activity have delayed and diminished expectations for rate cuts in 2024. Markets are now pricing only 25 basis points of cuts for later in the year, down from the 150-200 bps in cuts that were priced in at the end of 2023. While economic data have been stronger than expected, persistent restrictive monetary policy could negatively impact the broader economy and remains a downside risk.

Harnessing the Potential of Private Structured Credit

Private Structured Credit (PSC) presents a specific investment avenue, seeking to offer insurance investors yield pick-up vs public bonds, capital efficiency, risk mitigation via covenant protection, and sector diversification.

Economic Monthly – Businesses Ride to the Rescue

We now expect the U.S. economy to avoid a recession in 2024. Businesses are emerging as a backstop – largely due to high and rising profit margins, a manufacturing rebound and a resilient services sector. However, we do remain somewhat concerned about the strength of the consumer. Find out why in our latest Economic Monthly.

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q2 2024

Major economies are looking for their GDP to run below long-term trend (see Figure 2), with China continuing to slow gradually despite economic re-opening and policy stimulus.

Decarbonization Metrics for Real Estate Investment

Approximately 25% of the companies in the 2022 S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment (CSA), set net-zero targets. The buildings sector, both operational and new construction, is responsible for 39% of global emissions.

The Case for a U.S. Productivity Boom

The economy in any single year is subject to the vagaries of chance and, as such, can be “noisy”. Near-term volatility that exerts short-term stress into markets may be front of mind for most investors, but it is long-term trends that provide us with the best view of the future, especially for those with long investment horizons.

Are Consumers Weakening?

New paper making the case for U.S. productivity. Drawing on many difference data sources that highlight why the U.S. economy is on the verge of a productivity boom.

A Second Trump Presidency?

President Trump could win the 2024 presidential election. When the incumbent presidential party presides over an improvement in the unemployment rate, it is likely to be returned to power. With unemployment at historic lows, unemployment is likely to get worse, creating headwinds for a Biden re-election.

Strategic Asset Allocation: Balancing Art and Science

Guy Haselmann, Head of Thought Leadership at MetLife Investment Management (MIM), recently sat down with Ruth Farrugia, Global Head of Insurance Asset Management at MIM, to discuss strategic asset management for Insurance Companies.

Gateway Markets and Core Property Types: Not What They Used to Be

What should be considered gateway markets and core property types today? The investing universe and real estate markets have evolved dramatically over the last few decades.  See the list of markets that now rank highly as gateways and which once-niche sectors could be labeled core property types under our proposed definitions.

Robust Jobs and Tight Credit: Will the Consumer Keep Spending?

Looking at the data of the first six weeks of the year, we have seen some promising economic indicators, with consumer health shored up by a robust job market. But we believe the U.S. economy is not out of the woods yet. Find out why in our latest Economic Monthly.

U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook – Lifting Fog

We believe 2024 will be a year of lifting fog for commercial real estate. While that will be a welcome development from the obscurity of 2023, fog can lift to reveal the challenges on the road ahead. This is especially true when considering the potentially new-normal pricing regime. Still, we think the clarity offered by the coming year will be a step in the right direction of healing real estate capital markets. We expect transaction activity to begin recovering during the year, as buyers and sellers agree on the outlook for interest rates and thus real estate values. Although many macroeconomic factors remain unresolved, we believe that the resilience of the U.S. consumer will enable the U.S. economy and real estate sector to successfully overcome the challenges of the year ahead. Download and read our full outlook today.

Politics, Debt and Recession – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

After a strange — and surprisingly strong — 2023, we expect a paring back of global growth in 2024. For the U.S., we expect recession, while for Japan and China, we expect positive but decelerating growth. We expect European countries to avoid a recession in the first half of the year with improvement in the second half. We expect inflation to normalize toward central bank targets over the year.

The Final Countdown? Ballooning Treasury Issuance and The Rising U.S. Debt

Our latest article which discusses a range of scenarios for the U.S. fiscal outlook. We examine the underlying causes which make fiscal adjustment so complicated and consider the probability of further downgrades and outlook revisions.

Economy Monthly – Labor Market: On the Precipice?

The unemployment rate has been creeping up gradually since July, reaching 3.9% this past October according to the BLS. By some measures it is approaching a threshold traditionally considered indicative of a recession. Is the Labor Market on the precipice?

Economic Monthly – Well, Do You Feel Lucky?

Getting the House in Order. Take a look into our latest Economic Monthly as we highlight how we think the latest developments in Washington could play out. We also explore the state of the U.S. labor market, debt to GDP, 10 year treasury yields and inflation expectations.

Fall 2023 Real Estate Outlook - Is This What a Soft Landing Looks Like?

MetLife Investment Management’s latest real estate outlook highlights some early signs of opportunities for well-capitalized investors, as the fog begins to lift from the backdrop of a challenging economic outlook and disruptive real estate capital market conditions.

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q4 2023

The paper highlights the expectations of key global economic drivers broken down by region and asset class, from MIM’s Global Economic & Market Strategy Team. It calls out the asset classes that they believe are over-valued or under-valued compared to the underlying fundamentals. This edition shares commentary on global growth, treasury yields, credit market valuations, US housing and US equities.

Economic Monthly – If It’s Fall, It Must Be Shutdown Season

The U.S. political situation is back into economic focus as a government shutdown looms, with funding set to expire on September 30 if no short-term funding agreements are passed. We do not expect a shutdown to change the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy. The 10-year Treasury may decline slightly in the short-run as it generally has after a shutdown, but equity markets have historically had a mixed response.

Real Estate Debt: Highest Yields in Decades

With yields rising to the highest level in decades, Will Pattison, Head of Real Estate Research & Strategy discusses inflations impact and opportunities he sees in Real Estate debt and commercial mortgages.

Emerging Market Debt Sovereigns 2023 Capturing Alpha Through Differentiation

Over the last 25 years, the EM investable universe has grown in breadth and depth to become one of the most intricate in the entire fixed income space. Its intricacy originates from a wide range of risk factors across geography, quality, and duration that can offer interesting alpha opportunities to investors when understood and properly differentiated.  

Greening the Grid: A Tipping Point in U.S. Renewable Energy Production

In our latest real estate insight, Jim Landau and Giuls Kunkel explore the layers of interconnection between a greener grid and renewable resources, and how the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats associated with greening the grid may influence asset managers’ decarbonization strategies.

Insurance Insights | Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q3 2023

The Insurance Insights paper provided Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation insights for Insurance Clients and prospects and includes views on Global and U.S. Economies; Asset fundamentals, valuations, and technicals; multi-asset portfolio strategy, etc.

Global Risks 2023 – Midyear Review

In our midyear review of global risk, we assess current risks relative to our full-year 2023 outlook in January, including sticky inflation in the U.S. and Europe, and uncertainty related to the U.S.-China relationship.

Insurance Insights | Gauging S&P’s Proposed Changes to Its Risk-Based Capital Adequacy Methodology

Guy Haselmann recently sat down with Jingsu Pu to dig through the proposed changes S&P Global is considering to its Insurer Risk-Based Capital Adequacy Methodology. Jingsu will help assess what it could mean for insurers and their ratings.

Insurance Insights: The Challenges of Interest Maintenance Reserve (IMR)

Guy Haselmann recently sat down with Jingsu Pu to better understand the issues and complexities around Interest Maintenance Reserve (IMR). IMR was the most talked about topic at a recent conference attended by Jingsu.

Navigating Uncertainty – Risks and Opportunities in Commercial Real Estate

In our latest Real Estate market outlook, we detail how various cities and property types are positioned amid economic uncertainty and capital markets volatility and outline a framework for considering where real estate prices are in a market with low liquidity.

Unique Attributes of Real Estate Investments

Guy Haselmann, Head of Thought Leadership at MetLife Investment Management (MIM), recently sat down with William Pattison, Head of Real Estate Research at MIM to discuss real estate investing. Will helps break down the various sectors into understandable categories and mentions some of the challenges and new opportunities of each.

Insurance Insights | Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation – Q2 2023

Taming inflation is the main theme for global economies. Tightening monetary policy, slower growth and rising recession risk are all likely having an impact.

Disengagement, Division, or Diversification: the Future of Globalization

Since the twin crises of the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many have become worried about the future of globalization. In this article, we sketch out a few plausible paths forward, including disengagement, division and diversification, and conclude with our thoughts on markers to watch.

Short Duration Fixed Income: New Environment, New Opportunities

Guy Haselmann, Head of Thought Leadership at MetLife Investment Management, recently sat down with Scott Pavlak, Head of Short Duration Fixed Income, to discuss interest rates and the investment landscape in short duration bonds.

Investing in Water Infrastructure

Discussion on global opportunities in the rapidly growing - but under resourced - area of water infrastructure. The discussion covers areas such as clean waters journey, treatment plants, wastewater, storage, droughts and floods, and the technology that makes it all work. 

Insurance Insights | Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation - Q1 2023

The Insurance Insights paper provided Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation insights for Insurance Clients and prospects and includes views on Global and U.S. Economies; Asset fundamentals, valuations, and technicals; multi-asset portfolio strategy, etc.

Predicting the Pivot: Why 2%?

The Federal Reserve continues to focus on inflation when setting policy. Despite this, the recent Summary of Economic Projections shows the Fed cutting rates even as inflation remains above 2%. In this report we ask the following three questions: · What is so great about a 2% inflation target anyway? · Is it likely that the Fed would maintain a tight policy even when unemployment begins to rise? · How might we determine when a policy pivot is under consideration?

Emerging Market Debt: Where We Started, Where We Are, and Where We’re Going

EM portfolio team provides a comprehensive look at the many factors that have been impacting Emerging Market Debt. The paper looks at current valuations and offers a roadmap for capitalizing on the opportunities expected to unfold in 2023. 

Global Risks 2023: Recession, Inflation, and Central Banks

We expect a global recession with decelerating inflation in 2023. The report discusses upside and downside risks to our baseline, including the Fed’s inability to tame inflation, the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s effect on commodity and food prices, and slower than expected economic growth in China.

Buy Now, Pay Later: Early Warning Signs of a Weaker Consumer?

The reports explain how Buy Now, Pay Later loans could be a window into financial stress on certain groups of consumers.

Technical Analysis Chart Pack: November 2022

As we went through all the charts in this report, a clear theme seems like that all markets were pricing in peaking inflation and Fed pivoting in last couple of weeks. G4 interest rates retraced sharply after a relentless rally. Dollar seems to have formed a peak. Commodity index looks like peaked as well, which usually leads a peak of inflation. DM equity market sentiment also turned positive. However, given that the long-term downtrend is intact, the current short-term upturn remains viewed as bear market rally in our view. EM equity looks relatively attractive.

Decoding a Mixed Economy

In the latest episode of “MIM Cuts to the Chase”, Tani Fukui examines the various economic cross-currents and provides a rationale for where she thinks the economy and Fed policy is headed in 2023.   

Four Scenarios: Recession, Soft Landing, Stagflation or the Status Quo

Economic forecasts are particularly uncertain right now, and an honest assessment requires considering multiple scenarios. We still expect a recession but see a soft landing as the most likely, off-base case scenario.

Can Climate Variables Drive Alpha?

In the latest podcast of “MIM Cuts to the Chase”, Jim Grace discusses why analyzing climate related variables should play a part of bottom-up research to determine appropriate credit spread levels and how they can lead to identifying alpha generating opportunities.

Insurance Insights | Core Real Estate for U.S. Insurers

Core real estate equity exposures offer a multitude of benefits to diversified multi asset class portfolios. Rising inflation and risk-based capital (RBC) changes that took effect 12/31/21 are fueling broader interest by insurance companies in commercial real estate equity. This report outlines the rationale and the primary factors to consider.

Model-derived Risk-based Capital for Collateralized Loan Obligations: How Will the National Association of Insurance Commissioners’ Proposal Impact U.S. Insurers’ Investment Strategies?

At the June 9, 2022 meeting of its Valuation of Securities Task Force (“VOSTF”) the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (“NAIC”) discussed a staff recommendation to change how the risk-based capital (“RBC”) for insurers’ investments in collateralized loan obligations (“CLO”) is determined.

Opportunities in Moderate Income Rental Housing

Over the past several decades, the residential rental sector has grown from relative obscurity to become one of the largest and most important institutional investment asset classes. The sector offers a wide range of investment options, including a range of risk profiles (mortgages, stabilized assets, transitional assets, ground up development), housing formats (high-rises, garden apartments, manufactured housing, among others), and geographic options. In recent years, investors have also begun segmenting investment options by the income profiles of residents, and new targeted strategies have emerged. One such strategy that we believe offers attractive risk adjusted returns and supports the need for more affordable housing is Moderate Income Rental Housing.

This Year’s Half-Hearted Policy Response a Harbinger for Things to Come

Macro paper on trends in China including policy shifts, demographics, economy trends, stimulus policy all leading toward the 20th Party Congress.

Investment Opportunities in Private Commercial Mortgage Investments

We believe private U.S. commercial mortgages can fit well in a multi-asset portfolio due to their historically favorable risk-adjusted returns versus other asset classes, as well as their attractive income return potential and lower historical loss rates versus public corporate bonds with similar risk profiles. Given these attributes and at times opaque nature of the U.S. commercial mortgage market, we believe selecting investment management platforms with experience, resources, and scale are able to better source and manage commercial mortgage investments.

Insurance Insights | Relative value and tactical asset allocation

The key economic and market themes remain downbeat. We continue to prefer up-in-quality credits and underweight risky assets. Global economic growth could continue to slow over the next several months. U.S. 10-year yield and inflation are likely to have peaked, which could result in a fully inverted yield curve. A short, sharp recession is likely in the mid-to-late next year. The credit cycle is aging fast, given tightening lending standards, slowing profit growth, and margin pressures.

Carbon Neutrality in Real Estate

Our 3rd paper in MIM’s Carbon Neutral series focuses on government legislation and regulation, as well as incentives that may stimulate the production of renewable energy.

A Cutting History: 2023 in Context

The paper explains why the MIM Macro Strategy team expects Fed Funds rate cuts in 2023, despite markets lowering their rate cuts expectations. Moreover, they believe the higher they hike over the next few quarters, the more likely they will have to cut in 2023.

Excess Savings and the Consumer

Household income exceeded spending by a total of $5.5 trillion during the pandemic, or 72% above what it might have been in normal times.

Fishtailing into the Next Recession

What will the next recession look like? Each past recession has had its own characteristics: borrowing from Tolstoy, every recession makes us unhappy in its own way. We, of course, don’t know exactly how the next recession will make us unhappy, but we can take some hints both from history and from the current state of the economy.

Commercial Mortgage Lending

Commercial mortgage loans (CMLs) have become an important component of private investment portfolios over the past 30 years. Interest in commercial mortgages began growing as the sector was institutionalizing in the 1990s1 and continued to grow in more recent years as mortgages found utility within an expanding array of investment structures. Private commercial mortgage-debt funds, for instance, have shown 11% average annual fundraising increases over the past 10 years.

How Inflation and Rising Interest Rates Impact Commercial Real Estate

Guy Haselmann, Head of Thought Leadership at MetLife Investment Management (MIM), recently sat down with William Pattison, Head of Real Estate Research to discuss the impact that the high inflation and rising interest rates is having on Commercial Real Estate

Short and Intermediate Duration: Q2 2022 Recap, Portfolio Actions & Outlook

In the second quarter, credit spreads in the front end of the maturity spectrum continued to move wider and interest rates moved higher as the market responded to liftoff and the promise of more rate hikes to come.

Global Risks 2022 Mid-Year Review

MetLife Investment Management’s global strategists look toward the second half of 2022 with concerns about recession, inflation, China and the possible effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy prices.

Investing in Digital Infrastructure

For our latest discussion, Syed Ahmed, Director of Infrastructure and Project Finance and Guy Haselmann, Head of Thought Leadership sit down for a conversation on the scope, scale, opportunities and challenges in the rapidly growing area of digital infrastructure.

It’s Time to Re-calibrate Your Portfolio

This paper provides an argument for why 2022 may be the ideal timing for long short credit exposure and highlights several of the potential benefits for investors of all types. Furthermore, the paper highlights MetLife Investment Management’s long short credit strategy.

Global Risks 2022

Metlife Investment Management views primary risks to the 2022 global economic outlook to include inflation, slowing Chinese and U.S. growth, Central Bank policy mistakes, geopolitics, and energy prices.

Real Estate Investment Strategy Quarterly – Our Outlook and Forecasts for 2022

MetLife Investment Management’s (MIM) real estate research team provides updated views on relative value in the commercial real estate space, including updated property price forecasts, and considerations for investors who believe inflation may not be transitory.

Investing in Sustainable Private Credit

This article transcribes a roundtable discussion of sustainable private credit. The Q&A format paper discusses topics that include deal sourcing across geographies, the role and significance that sustainable investing plays in MIM’s origination, and the inputs used to qualify sustainable metrics.

Balance-Sheet Normalization and the Next Recession

We believe the Fed’s balance sheet normalization carries underappreciated risks as the assumption of a benign balance sheet runoff is dependent on a single historical example in 2017-2019. We expect elevated market volatility as the balance-sheet normalization process takes place.

Insurance Perspectives: Considerations for Emerging Market Debt - The how, where and why to invest?

The current global market environment is unique, with investors searching for yield and questioning the funding dynamics of governments and corporates around the world. We believe fundamentals and valuations within Emerging Markets (EM) remain attractive relative to Developed Markets. For insurance companies, investing in EM debt can increase portfolio diversification and generate attractive capital-adjusted yields, and there are various strategies and structures available for insurance investors.

MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series: The Outlook for Commercial Real Estate in a Multi-Asset Portfolio

MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series: LATAM To the Left To the Left

MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series: Emerging Market Investing Through Inflation

MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series – Episode 1: Intro and Opportunities in Bank Loans

The Future of Housing: Our Outlook for Single and Multi-family Investments

The single-family rental sector is following the same path toward institutional acceptance that apartments navigated in the 1990s and 2000s. Demographics and cultural changes along with technological advances in software, property management, and data have led to vast improvements in performance and transparency

Carbon Neutrality in Real Estate: Strategies for Success

It has been over five years since the Paris agreement has been signed and private sector carbon neutrality pledges are on the rise. We take a look at what the real estate industry doing and ask if it is enough.

Emerging Market Debt: Trends, Benefits and Opportunities

Scott Moses, portfolio manager of emerging market debt (EMD) at MetLife Investment Management sat down with Pensions Age to discuss the latest trends within EMD and the opportunities these can provide for pension fund investors. They discuss how the pandemic affected investments, what regions to be excited about and more.

Market Frictions and Climate Change: Why the Marketplace Can’t Just Fix it

We describe four major economic frictions that converge in climate change, scrambling the signals between prices and optimal production.

Inflation Housing, not Supply Chains

The high September headline CPI print of 5.4% concealed moderate price increases for the month, but going forward housing inflation is the indicator to watch.

Cycle Peaks of 10-Year Yields

In recent business cycles, rates have peaked relatively soon after recession end. Most forecasters are expecting a gradual peaking of rates in 2023 or later; we expect rates to peak in 2022.

Core Real Estate for U.S. Insurers

Rising inflation, an improving economy, and Risk Based Capital changes taking effect 12/31/21 are fueling broader interest by insurance companies in commercial real estate equity. This report outlines the rationale and the primary factors to consider.

Fall 2021 Real Estate Outlook: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

U.S. real estate investors are benefitting from economic growth coupled with “made-for-CRE” monetary policy. Out of favor property types including retail, office, and hotel may offer attractive relative value today, and should not be ignored by investors seeking a diversified portfolio.

Evolution of Credit Quality in the Long Investment Grade Market

Every credit cycle leaves a lasting mark on corporate behavior, management financial policy and capital allocation. Today companies that have been able to build ample cash are faced with capital allocation decisions, which could further impact the trajectory of leverage. Learn more about how investment grade corporates fared through the cycle, recent trends, including ratings migration especially in the long credit market and how we are navigating the current environment

A Very Long Engagement: Asset Allocation Implications of U.S. Life Insurance Risk-Based Capital Changes

The NAIC approved updates to risk-based capital (RBC) bond and real estate equity factors for U.S. life insurance companies; we examine the changes from the prior RBC regime, as well as the implications on relative value considerations and life insurers’ strategic and tactical asset allocation.

Emerging Markets: Market Review and Outlook

Rate volatility and several idiosyncratic stories during the second quarter drove market performance within Emerging Markets. With delays to vaccine rollouts and continued high daily new cases and deaths hindering re-opening plans and putting excess pressure on economies, EM countries have lagged in the COVID-19 recovery. We expect Emerging Markets recovery to be a second half 2021 story, with countries starting to take active steps to reduce some of the unprecedented policy actions. We remain optimistically cautious given still robust accommodation, supportive growth and positive flow dynamics. In this paper, we look back at Emerging Markets in the second quarter, as well our expectations for the asset class in the second half of the year.

Technical Analysis Chart Pack: August 2021

The first chart in this report, U.S. 30 Yr. Yield, reminds us that the long-term downtrend is well and strong. There are some early signs that the short-term downtrends for G4 government bond yields may change. U.S. HY Spread widened a bit in last couple of weeks, but we feel that the risk of a spread spike remains low. U.S. equity continues its rally, and EM equity seems like already peaked. Commodities remain solid, while US Dollar and Gold are in trading ranges.

Changes to Investments Risk-Based Capital for U.S. Insurers: A Potential Positive for Public Structured Products

The insurance industry is expecting significant changes in investments risk-based capital, and for structured product portfolios these changes could amount to a paradigm shift.

Laying the Foundation: Carbon Neutrality in Real Estate Investment

In this paper, we examine the varied commitments the real estate investment industry has made to determine if our industry is contributing to the goal of carbon neutrality in a meaningful and more importantly, measurable, way.

NAIC’s RBC Update: Implications for Real Estate Allocation Decisions

On May 27th, 2021, NAIC’s Life RBC Working Group approved an ACLI-sponsored proposal to reduce risk-based capital (RBC) factors for real estate equity (REE). MetLife Investment Management hosted an interactive moderated panel discussion to discuss these changes and the investment implications for life insurance companies.

Recovery Risks at Mid-Year 2021

he Great Recovery of 2021 has so far been volatile and difficult to navigate. The remainder of the year could be at least as difficult with the added stress of potential Central Bank actions, which themselves are highly dependent on ever-changing data signals. We examine the greatest risks to our 2021 forecast.

Technical Analysis Chart Pack July 2021

The G4 government bond yields have been grinding lower from their recent peaks for last few weeks. The immediate downtrend may continue. US 2s10s yield curve spread seems to be more predictable than the 10yr yield level.  Continued equity rally and tightening HY spread suggest that market sentiment remains bullish.  US Dollar is stabilizing. Commodity rallies are intact, while they are approaching key resistances.

The Case for Investing in Floating Rate Bank Loans

With the economy expanding rapidly, growth in GDP is bringing the customary inflationary pressures along with expectations of rising interest rates. Given the supportive economic backdrop, we see value in floating bank loans. We will explore different segments of the bank loan market and highlight potential benefits and risks of the asset class.

Just Because You Call It a Recession Doesn’t Make It One

Although the COVID crisis caused significant economic disruption and has been defined as a recession, actions to stabilize the economy eliminated many of the positive effects that recessions can have including the failure of non-productive businesses. As a result, it is unlikely we are in a new business cycle. Rather, it is more likely we are returning to the business cycle of early 2020, albeit with significant changes to consumer and monetary and fiscal authority balance sheets.

NAIC’s RBC Update: Implications for Real Estate Allocation Decisions

MetLife Investment Management will host an interactive moderated panel discussion to discuss these changes and the investment implications for life insurance companies.

Investment Open For Business: Our Summer 2021 Commercial Real Estate Outlook

In our most recent commercial real estate outlook, we outline why cap rates may fall during the second half of 2021, explore recent work-from-home and office leasing trends, and comment on the unique “K” shaped nature of the economic downturn/recovery.

MetLife Investment Management Strategies

Taxable Municipals: Market Review and Outlook

The Taxable Municipal market rallied aggressively in the first quarter. In our 1Q21 market review and outlook, we discuss what triggered this and explore market conditions and events that are likely to influence the asset class going forward.

A Stigmatized Sector—Our Outlook for U.S. Hotel Investments

Today, the hotel sector continues to face challenges, but we believe the most difficult period for hotel demand is behind us. In the very short-term, we believe investors who can provide liquidity to the hotel market can potentially achieve attractive returns.

Short & Intermediate Duration: Q1 2021 Recap, Performance & Outlook

In our latest report, we recap market impacts to short and intermediate duration fixed income assets for Q1 2021 and how that impacted our strategy as well as performance.

Emerging Markets: Market Review and Outlook

In our first quarter Emerging Markets review and outlook, we review current market conditions and global events as they relate to this asset class.

Investment Grade Corporate: Market Review and Outlook

Overall, the first quarter of 2021 has exhibited stark changes in the landscape for fixed income investors. We believe from a fundamental perspective, pandemic depressed earnings and record issuance has left investment corporate balance sheets over-levered for their ratings with debt ratios more than a full turn higher than pre-pandemic highs. And while we feel technicals remain supportive of investment grade corporate spreads, valuations remain less compelling. Learn more in our latest investment grade corporate outlook.

Technical Analysis Chart Pack: April 2021

Fundamental economic data continues to support the continued risk-on market sentiment. Learn more in our latest technical analysis chart pack.

Quantitative Portfolio Strategy: Pension & Insurance – Applying A Risk Parity Strategy to a Fixed-Income-Only Portfolio

A risk parity strategy is an asset allocation strategy that can be used for both strategic and tactical asset allocation. In our most recent study, we explore the feasibility, effectiveness, implementation variables and limitations of this strategy when applied to a fixed-income-only portfolio, which may be more interesting to insurance asset and pension fund managers.

Avoiding the Crowds: Finding Opportunities in Private Structured Credit

In most fixed-income markets we are back to where we started in 2020 with low rates, tight spreads and warnings from some that asset prices across sectors may be overheated. What are fixed-income investors to do? For MIM’s Private Structured Credit strategy, it’s back to the basics – trying to identify higher-yield, investment grade opportunities that don’t fit neatly into the traditional asset-backed securities market or private securities market and work with borrowers to find financing solutions for these non-conforming sectors.

Emerging Markets 2021: Key Themes for EMBI Investors in a Post Pandemic World

This emerging market debt discussion considers the challenges many EM sovereigns will face following the unprecedented year of 2020, and features input from MIM’s global team, many of whom share their perspective on themes that we believe will be most relevant to emerging markets bond index investors in a post pandemic world.

Still Chained: N95 Masks and Supply Chains Lessons During COVID-19

Supply chains have become a much-maligned component of the international trade system. We examine the N95 mask shortage during the COVID-19 pandemic and argue that it demonstrates the difficulties of unraveling supply chains.

Supply/Demand Mismatches and 2020 Economic Growth

We expect the U.S. economy to grow – and grow rapidly – in 2021. But we expect the ride to be quite rocky, and the forecast to be more uncertain than usual.

Buying into the Energy Future

John Tanyeri, Head of Infrastructure and Project Finance, and Stuart Ashton, Director, Leasing and Tax Equity Investments, were recently featured by Infrastructure Investor in the article Buying into the Energy Future.

What's the Worst that Could Happen?

Although analysts missed the pandemic, it should be noted that a pandemic forecast would not have been unreasonable. Natural disasters occur with some regularity including, but not limited to, volcanic eruptions, solar flares and earthquakes. History suggests we may have one of these disasters or a pandemic roughly every nine years. What we cannot know is how much damage they will cause when they happen.

The Blockchain Blockbuster: Yapese Stones to Central Bank Digital Currencies

Blockchain, a revolutionary way of transmitting information trustlessly through time, has captured the imaginations of software developers, economists, and now, central bank policymakers worldwide. Blockchain is a version of distributed ledger technology, a system whose fundamental structure dates back hundreds of years to the Micronesian island of Yap.1

Private Capital Quarterly Investment Update (4Q 2020)

In MIM's fourth quarter investment update, they highlight their private placement debt origination activity for 2020 and their outlook on market conditions for 2021.

How to Stop Worrying and Learn to Love Inflation

There is a lot of discussion and worry about inflation in 2021. MIM believes there is a long way to go until they get to the Fed’s 2% average inflation target. Learn more.

Technical Analysis Chart Pack: Jan 2021

The speed of vaccine rollout and its effectiveness to end this pandemic are the key to determine both the direction of the real economy and the next move of the markets. Learn more in this month’s technical analysis chart pack.

A Multispeed Recovery – 2021 Global Risks

After a chaotic and difficult 2020, MIM look forward to finally turning the page to a new year. MIM believe 2021 will be a year of a multispeed recovery. For each region, MIM presents their base case forecast for key economic indicators and highlight key regional risks to keep an eye on.

Commercial Real Estate Outlook 2021: The winding path to recovery

Interest in socially responsible investing continues to gain ground as climate change and social issues have become increasingly prioritized by stakeholders. MIM believes a larger focus on passive management, significant interest from institutional investors, and increasing regulatory scrutiny on both corporations and investment managers will continue to shape capital allocation processes.

Seeing the Forest from the Trees: A closer look at SRI investing

Interest in socially responsible investing continues to gain ground as climate change and social issues have become increasingly prioritized by stakeholders. MIM believes a larger focus on passive management, significant interest from institutional investors, and increasing regulatory scrutiny on both corporations and investment managers will continue to shape capital allocation processes.

High Yield for Insurance Companies: For Everything There is a Season

High yield corporate bonds and bank loans are core asset classes within many insurers’ strategic asset allocation frameworks. While insurers’ exposure to high yield declined in recent years as a result of de-risking actions taken late in the credit cycle, this trend likely has reversed in H1 2020 mainly due to the large magnitude of ratings downgrades; namely fallen angels. Given the complexity of managing insurance company investment portfolios and the inherent higher risk nature of high yield, there are many factors for insurers to consider when assessing the optimal exposure, pursuing portfolio sales and evaluating new investments in the asset class.

Investors Expect and Demand Meaningful Environmental Goals and Progress

There is no doubt that environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles play an increasingly influential role in investment management today. For real estate investors in particular, climate change has arrived as a material risk both in terms of physical risk from floods, hurricanes, and wildfires, as well as transitional risk such as compliance, insurance, and tax increases.

The Social Infrastructure Funding Gap in the United States

The need for investment in U.S. transportation and energy has received a great deal of publicity in recent years. However, the attention on the country’s aging social infrastructure has been less prevalent.

Exploring IG Private Asset-Based Finance and Strategic Allocation in Health Insurance

Frank Melaccio of Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey and Jason Young of MetLife Investment Management discuss investment-grade private credit and asset-based finance in health insurance portfolios.

Asset-Based Finance (ABF): Building Resilient Portfolios for Insurers

Join host Stewart Foley on the InsuranceAUM.com Podcast for a deep dive into private structured credit (private ABF) and its role in insurance portfolios.

Real Estate Debt Markets: Finding Value in Market Dislocations

Join host Stewart Foley on the InsuranceAUM.com Podcast for insights into private real estate debt. Explore market trends, commercial mortgage yields, and the impact of inflation and migration on real estate investment strategies for insurance portfolios.

Why are Residential Whole Loans the Talk of the Town?

Alfred Chang is the Head of Residential Credit at MetLife Investment Management.

A World in Debt: US Treasuries

Opportunities in EM Debt with Tom Smith of MetLife Investment Management

Tom Smith is a Emerging Market Portfolio Manager at MetLife Investment Management.

NAICs Treatment of CLOs with Angela Best and Francisco Paez of MetLife Investment Management

Exploring the NAIC’s proposed changes to CLO capital charges and what they mean for insurance investors.

How Real Estate Equity and ESG Converge in an Insurer’s Portfolio

In this episode of the InsuranceAUM Podcast, host Stewart Foley explores the convergence of real estate equity and ESG in insurers’ portfolios. From RBC changes to inflation hedging and sustainability strategies, discover how real estate offers opportunities for long-term performance and positive impact.

MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series: The Outlook for Commercial Real Estate in a Multi-Asset Portfolio

MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series: LATAM To the Left To the Left

MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series: Emerging Market Investing Through Inflation

MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series – Episode 1: Intro and Opportunities in Bank Loans

The Long and Winding Road: Opportunities and Challenges Facing Insurance Companies

Join host Stewart Foley on the InsuranceAUM.com Podcast as we explore the challenges and opportunities shaping insurance investment strategies in today’s evolving economic landscape.

Exploring Opportunities in Emerging Markets

Join host Stewart Foley on the InsuranceAUM.com Podcast as he explores emerging market debt, income opportunities, and risk considerations for insurance investors.