U.S. Real Estate Chartbook

This chartbook presents a compelling snapshot of the current state of the U.S. real estate market, highlighting signs of emerging stability and solid underlying fundamentals. It reveals that certain segments, with appealing valuations and consistent demand, are exhibiting potential for substantial growth.

What, Me Worry?

The markets had their fun in the first week of August, responding to the Sahm Rule being triggered alongside perceived excess hawkishness by the FOMC. Download our latest Economic Monthly to find out why we think generalized anxieties are driving the market overreaction.

Q2 2024 Emerging Markets Review and Outlook

U.S. Treasuries in the Post-Pandemic Era: More Volatility, Higher Yields

We expect US Treasury issuance to continue to exceed $2 trillion annually in coming years, four times the pre-pandemic average – even as global demand flattens. In the first of our ongoing series, “A World in Debt,” our Macro Strategy team examines why we expect these changes to lead to higher yields and volatility. What are other implications of rising supply and shifting demand?

Trickle Down Economics to the Rescue?

The latest Economic Monthly from the MIM Macro team drills down into the ongoing strength of the US consumer sector.

Uruguay: How Governance Drives Fundamentals, Sovereign Ratings, and Credit Risk Premium

We believe the influence of governance on Uruguay’s credit profile and risk premium has been positive. The country has a long history of strong institutions and consensus-based policy-making tradition that leads to durable policy decisions and supports social cohesion.s.

Beyond the Matched Book: How MIM Differentiates in Securities Lending

MetLife Investment Management’s Alex Strickler, Head of Securities Lending, explains how our differentiated “mismatched book” approach can yield incremental income for borrowers comfortable with a measured level of interest rate and credit risk.

The Electric Vehicle Transition: Long-Term Outcomes and Short-Term Uncertainties

“A clear destination without a roadmap” captures the many complexities – and opportunities – of the megatrend transition to a largely electric road transport future. In this new far-ranging analysis, MetLife Investment Management’s Fixed Income team examine key challenges and uncertainties facing the auto industry’s legacy OEMs, new players and policymakers.

Strength or Softness?

MetLife Investment Management continues to see consumers willing and able to spend for the next several months. While credit card delinquencies have risen dramatically, other loan types appear healthy. Weaker GDP is more than offset by stronger private domestic final purchases (PDFP).

The Role of Private Credit in the Transition to A Low Carbon Economy

Global energy transition to a low carbon future will require a record $8 trillion investment annually from 2024 to 2050. 70% of that transition finance is projected to come from the private sector.

Shifting Gears: The Acceleration of Prime Auto Securitization

Auto loan securitizations accounted for over 57% of $256 billion in new ABS volume in 2023. Despite rising interest rates and regulatory changes encouraging banks and credit unions to monetize their prime auto loan portfolios, investment opportunities persist for client portfolios. We map out the analysis in Shifting Gears: The Acceleration of Prime Auto Securitization.

Real Estate Debt: Navigating the New Frontier

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q3 2024

Global Risks Midyear Update 2024: Hanging Together

Flying Blind

The U.S. Federal Reserve has reduced the pace of quantitative tightening with a new monthly roll off cap of $25 billion of Treasury securities, down from $60 billion (Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, May 2024).

Are We There Yet? The Road to Recovery for CRE

Harnessing the Potential of Private Structured Credit

Private Structured Credit (PSC) presents a specific investment avenue, seeking to offer insurance investors yield pick-up vs public bonds, capital efficiency, risk mitigation via covenant protection, and sector diversification.

Economic Monthly – Businesses Ride to the Rescue

We now expect the U.S. economy to avoid a recession in 2024. Businesses are emerging as a backstop – largely due to high and rising profit margins, a manufacturing rebound and a resilient services sector. However, we do remain somewhat concerned about the strength of the consumer. Find out why in our latest Economic Monthly.

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q2 2024

Decarbonization Metrics for Real Estate Investment

A World in Debt: US Treasuries

The Case for a U.S. Productivity Boom

Are Consumers Weakening?

New paper making the case for U.S. productivity. Drawing on many difference data sources that highlight why the U.S. economy is on the verge of a productivity boom.

A Second Trump Presidency?

President Trump could win the 2024 presidential election. When the incumbent presidential party presides over an improvement in the unemployment rate, it is likely to be returned to power. With unemployment at historic lows, unemployment is likely to get worse, creating headwinds for a Biden re-election.

Strategic Asset Allocation: Balancing Art and Science

Guy Haselmann, Head of Thought Leadership at MetLife Investment Management (MIM), recently sat down with Ruth Farrugia, Global Head of Insurance Asset Management at MIM, to discuss strategic asset management for Insurance Companies.

Gateway Markets and Core Property Types: Not What They Used to Be

What should be considered gateway markets and core property types today? The investing universe and real estate markets have evolved dramatically over the last few decades.  See the list of markets that now rank highly as gateways and which once-niche sectors could be labeled core property types under our proposed definitions.

Robust Jobs and Tight Credit: Will the Consumer Keep Spending?

Looking at the data of the first six weeks of the year, we have seen some promising economic indicators, with consumer health shored up by a robust job market. But we believe the U.S. economy is not out of the woods yet. Find out why in our latest Economic Monthly.

U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook – Lifting Fog

Politics, Debt and Recession – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

After a strange — and surprisingly strong — 2023, we expect a paring back of global growth in 2024. For the U.S., we expect recession, while for Japan and China, we expect positive but decelerating growth. We expect European countries to avoid a recession in the first half of the year with improvement in the second half. We expect inflation to normalize toward central bank targets over the year.

The Final Countdown? Ballooning Treasury Issuance and The Rising U.S. Debt

Our latest article which discusses a range of scenarios for the U.S. fiscal outlook. We examine the underlying causes which make fiscal adjustment so complicated and consider the probability of further downgrades and outlook revisions.

Economy Monthly – Labor Market: On the Precipice?

The unemployment rate has been creeping up gradually since July, reaching 3.9% this past October according to the BLS. By some measures it is approaching a threshold traditionally considered indicative of a recession. Is the Labor Market on the precipice?

Economic Monthly – Well, Do You Feel Lucky?

Getting the House in Order. Take a look into our latest Economic Monthly as we highlight how we think the latest developments in Washington could play out. We also explore the state of the U.S. labor market, debt to GDP, 10 year treasury yields and inflation expectations.

Fall 2023 Real Estate Outlook - Is This What a Soft Landing Looks Like?

MetLife Investment Management’s latest real estate outlook highlights some early signs of opportunities for well-capitalized investors, as the fog begins to lift from the backdrop of a challenging economic outlook and disruptive real estate capital market conditions.

Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q4 2023

The paper highlights the expectations of key global economic drivers broken down by region and asset class, from MIM’s Global Economic & Market Strategy Team. It calls out the asset classes that they believe are over-valued or under-valued compared to the underlying fundamentals. This edition shares commentary on global growth, treasury yields, credit market valuations, US housing and US equities.

Economic Monthly – If It’s Fall, It Must Be Shutdown Season

The U.S. political situation is back into economic focus as a government shutdown looms, with funding set to expire on September 30 if no short-term funding agreements are passed. We do not expect a shutdown to change the trajectory of Federal Reserve policy. The 10-year Treasury may decline slightly in the short-run as it generally has after a shutdown, but equity markets have historically had a mixed response.

Real Estate Debt: Highest Yields in Decades

With yields rising to the highest level in decades, Will Pattison, Head of Real Estate Research & Strategy discusses inflations impact and opportunities he sees in Real Estate debt and commercial mortgages.

Emerging Market Debt Sovereigns 2023 Capturing Alpha Through Differentiation

Over the last 25 years, the EM investable universe has grown in breadth and depth to become one of the most intricate in the entire fixed income space. Its intricacy originates from a wide range of risk factors across geography, quality, and duration that can offer interesting alpha opportunities to investors when understood and properly differentiated.  

Greening the Grid: A Tipping Point in U.S. Renewable Energy Production

In our latest real estate insight, Jim Landau and Giuls Kunkel explore the layers of interconnection between a greener grid and renewable resources, and how the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats associated with greening the grid may influence asset managers’ decarbonization strategies.

Insurance Insights | Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation Q3 2023

The Insurance Insights paper provided Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation insights for Insurance Clients and prospects and includes views on Global and U.S. Economies; Asset fundamentals, valuations, and technicals; multi-asset portfolio strategy, etc.

Global Risks 2023 – Midyear Review

In our midyear review of global risk, we assess current risks relative to our full-year 2023 outlook in January, including sticky inflation in the U.S. and Europe, and uncertainty related to the U.S.-China relationship.

Insurance Insights | Gauging S&P’s Proposed Changes to Its Risk-Based Capital Adequacy Methodology

Guy Haselmann recently sat down with Jingsu Pu to dig through the proposed changes S&P Global is considering to its Insurer Risk-Based Capital Adequacy Methodology. Jingsu will help assess what it could mean for insurers and their ratings.

Insurance Insights: The Challenges of Interest Maintenance Reserve (IMR)

Guy Haselmann recently sat down with Jingsu Pu to better understand the issues and complexities around Interest Maintenance Reserve (IMR). IMR was the most talked about topic at a recent conference attended by Jingsu.

Navigating Uncertainty – Risks and Opportunities in Commercial Real Estate

In our latest Real Estate market outlook, we detail how various cities and property types are positioned amid economic uncertainty and capital markets volatility and outline a framework for considering where real estate prices are in a market with low liquidity.

Unique Attributes of Real Estate Investments

Guy Haselmann, Head of Thought Leadership at MetLife Investment Management (MIM), recently sat down with William Pattison, Head of Real Estate Research at MIM to discuss real estate investing. Will helps break down the various sectors into understandable categories and mentions some of the challenges and new opportunities of each.

Insurance Insights | Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation – Q2 2023

Taming inflation is the main theme for global economies. Tightening monetary policy, slower growth and rising recession risk are all likely having an impact.

Disengagement, Division, or Diversification: the Future of Globalization

Since the twin crises of the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many have become worried about the future of globalization. In this article, we sketch out a few plausible paths forward, including disengagement, division and diversification, and conclude with our thoughts on markers to watch.

Short Duration Fixed Income: New Environment, New Opportunities

Guy Haselmann, Head of Thought Leadership at MetLife Investment Management, recently sat down with Scott Pavlak, Head of Short Duration Fixed Income, to discuss interest rates and the investment landscape in short duration bonds.

Opportunities in EM Debt with Tom Smith of MetLife Investment Management

We are very happy to have Tom Smith back from MetLife Investment Management. Tom is a repeat guest on the show, here to talk about emerging market debt again.

Investing in Water Infrastructure

Discussion on global opportunities in the rapidly growing - but under resourced - area of water infrastructure. The discussion covers areas such as clean waters journey, treatment plants, wastewater, storage, droughts and floods, and the technology that makes it all work. 

Insurance Insights | Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation - Q1 2023

The Insurance Insights paper provided Relative Value & Tactical Asset Allocation insights for Insurance Clients and prospects and includes views on Global and U.S. Economies; Asset fundamentals, valuations, and technicals; multi-asset portfolio strategy, etc.