Thomas Metzler
Managing Director – Institutional Client Group
thomas.metzler@metlife.com
973-355-4153
About MetLife Investment Management
MetLife Investment Management (MIM) enables insurance companies to leverage the 150-year history of our parent, MetLife, Inc., and partner together to invest on their behalves. MIM has a long track record of investing for insurance companies globally; we combine this experience with a client-centric approach and deep asset class expertise. Focused on managing private debt, real estate and public fixed income, we aim to create customized portfolio solutions across the risk spectrum, including income oriented, constrained portfolios as well as total return strategies. We listen first, strategize second, and collaborate constantly to meet clients’ long-term investment objectives.
A Cutting History: 2023 in Context
The paper explains why the MIM Macro Strategy team expects Fed Funds rate cuts in 2023, despite markets lowering their rate cuts expectations. Moreover, they believe the higher they hike over the next few quarters, the more likely they will have to cut in 2023.
Excess Savings and the Consumer
Household income exceeded spending by a total of $5.5 trillion during the pandemic, or 72% above what it might have been in normal times.
Fishtailing into the Next Recession
What will the next recession look like? Each past recession has had its own characteristics: borrowing from Tolstoy, every recession makes us unhappy in its own way. We, of course, don’t know exactly how the next recession will make us unhappy, but we can take some hints both from history and from the current state of the economy.
Commercial Mortgage Lending
Commercial mortgage loans (CMLs) have become an important component of private investment portfolios over the past 30 years. Interest in commercial mortgages began growing as the sector was institutionalizing in the 1990s1 and continued to grow in more recent years as mortgages found utility within an expanding array of investment structures. Private commercial mortgage-debt funds, for instance, have shown 11% average annual fundraising increases over the past 10 years.
How Inflation and Rising Interest Rates Impact Commercial Real Estate
Guy Haselmann, Head of Thought Leadership at MetLife Investment Management (MIM), recently sat down with William Pattison, Head of Real Estate Research to discuss the impact that the high inflation and rising interest rates is having on Commercial Real Estate
Short and Intermediate Duration: Q2 2022 Recap, Portfolio Actions & Outlook
In the second quarter, credit spreads in the front end of the maturity spectrum continued to move wider and interest rates moved higher as the market responded to liftoff and the promise of more rate hikes to come.
Global Risks 2022 Mid-Year Review
MetLife Investment Management’s global strategists look toward the second half of 2022 with concerns about recession, inflation, China and the possible effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy prices.
Investing in Digital Infrastructure
For our latest discussion, Syed Ahmed, Director of Infrastructure and Project Finance and Guy Haselmann, Head of Thought Leadership sit down for a conversation on the scope, scale, opportunities and challenges in the rapidly growing area of digital infrastructure.
It’s Time to Re-calibrate Your Portfolio
This paper provides an argument for why 2022 may be the ideal timing for long short credit exposure and highlights several of the potential benefits for investors of all types. Furthermore, the paper highlights MetLife Investment Management’s long short credit strategy.
How Real Estate Equity and ESG Converge in an Insurer’s Portfolio
Global Risks 2022
Metlife Investment Management views primary risks to the 2022 global economic outlook to include inflation, slowing Chinese and U.S. growth, Central Bank policy mistakes, geopolitics, and energy prices.
Real Estate Investment Strategy Quarterly – Our Outlook and Forecasts for 2022
MetLife Investment Management’s (MIM) real estate research team provides updated views on relative value in the commercial real estate space, including updated property price forecasts, and considerations for investors who believe inflation may not be transitory.
Investing in Sustainable Private Credit
This article transcribes a roundtable discussion of sustainable private credit. The Q&A format paper discusses topics that include deal sourcing across geographies, the role and significance that sustainable investing plays in MIM’s origination, and the inputs used to qualify sustainable metrics.
Balance-Sheet Normalization and the Next Recession
We believe the Fed’s balance sheet normalization carries underappreciated risks as the assumption of a benign balance sheet runoff is dependent on a single historical example in 2017-2019. We expect elevated market volatility as the balance-sheet normalization process takes place.
Insurance Perspectives: Considerations for Emerging Market Debt - The how, where and why to invest?
The current global market environment is unique, with investors searching for yield and questioning the funding dynamics of governments and corporates around the world. We believe fundamentals and valuations within Emerging Markets (EM) remain attractive relative to Developed Markets. For insurance companies, investing in EM debt can increase portfolio diversification and generate attractive capital-adjusted yields, and there are various strategies and structures available for insurance investors.
MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series: The Outlook for Commercial Real Estate in a Multi-Asset Portfolio
MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series: The Outlook for Commercial Real Estate in a Multi-Asset Portfolio
MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series: LATAM To the Left To the Left
MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series: LATAM To the Left To the Left
MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series: Emerging Market Investing Through Inflation
MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series: Emerging Market Investing Through Inflation
MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series – Episode 1: Intro and Opportunities in Bank Loans
MIM Cuts to the Chase Podcast Series – Episode 1: Intro and Opportunities in Bank Loans
The Future of Housing: Our Outlook for Single and Multi-family Investments
The single-family rental sector is following the same path toward institutional acceptance that apartments navigated in the 1990s and 2000s. Demographics and cultural changes along with technological advances in software, property management, and data have led to vast improvements in performance and transparency
Carbon Neutrality in Real Estate: Strategies for Success
It has been over five years since the Paris agreement has been signed and private sector carbon neutrality pledges are on the rise. We take a look at what the real estate industry doing and ask if it is enough.
Emerging Market Debt: Trends, Benefits and Opportunities
Scott Moses, portfolio manager of emerging market debt (EMD) at MetLife Investment Management sat down with Pensions Age to discuss the latest trends within EMD and the opportunities these can provide for pension fund investors. They discuss how the pandemic affected investments, what regions to be excited about and more.
Market Frictions and Climate Change: Why the Marketplace Can’t Just Fix it
We describe four major economic frictions that converge in climate change, scrambling the signals between prices and optimal production.
Inflation Housing, not Supply Chains
The high September headline CPI print of 5.4% concealed moderate price increases for the month, but going forward housing inflation is the indicator to watch.
Cycle Peaks of 10-Year Yields
In recent business cycles, rates have peaked relatively soon after recession end. Most forecasters are expecting a gradual peaking of rates in 2023 or later; we expect rates to peak in 2022.
Core Real Estate for U.S. Insurers
Rising inflation, an improving economy, and Risk Based Capital changes taking effect 12/31/21 are fueling broader interest by insurance companies in commercial real estate equity. This report outlines the rationale and the primary factors to consider.
Fall 2021 Real Estate Outlook: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
U.S. real estate investors are benefitting from economic growth coupled with “made-for-CRE” monetary policy. Out of favor property types including retail, office, and hotel may offer attractive relative value today, and should not be ignored by investors seeking a diversified portfolio.
Evolution of Credit Quality in the Long Investment Grade Market
Every credit cycle leaves a lasting mark on corporate behavior, management financial policy and capital allocation. Today companies that have been able to build ample cash are faced with capital allocation decisions, which could further impact the trajectory of leverage. Learn more about how investment grade corporates fared through the cycle, recent trends, including ratings migration especially in the long credit market and how we are navigating the current environment
A Very Long Engagement: Asset Allocation Implications of U.S. Life Insurance Risk-Based Capital Changes
The NAIC approved updates to risk-based capital (RBC) bond and real estate equity factors for U.S. life insurance companies; we examine the changes from the prior RBC regime, as well as the implications on relative value considerations and life insurers’ strategic and tactical asset allocation.
Emerging Markets: Market Review and Outlook
Rate volatility and several idiosyncratic stories during the second quarter drove market performance within Emerging Markets. With delays to vaccine rollouts and continued high daily new cases and deaths hindering re-opening plans and putting excess pressure on economies, EM countries have lagged in the COVID-19 recovery. We expect Emerging Markets recovery to be a second half 2021 story, with countries starting to take active steps to reduce some of the unprecedented policy actions. We remain optimistically cautious given still robust accommodation, supportive growth and positive flow dynamics. In this paper, we look back at Emerging Markets in the second quarter, as well our expectations for the asset class in the second half of the year.
Technical Analysis Chart Pack: August 2021
The first chart in this report, U.S. 30 Yr. Yield, reminds us that the long-term downtrend is well and strong. There are some early signs that the short-term downtrends for G4 government bond yields may change. U.S. HY Spread widened a bit in last couple of weeks, but we feel that the risk of a spread spike remains low. U.S. equity continues its rally, and EM equity seems like already peaked. Commodities remain solid, while US Dollar and Gold are in trading ranges.
Changes to Investments Risk-Based Capital for U.S. Insurers: A Potential Positive for Public Structured Products
The insurance industry is expecting significant changes in investments risk-based capital, and for structured product portfolios these changes could amount to a paradigm shift.
Laying the Foundation: Carbon Neutrality in Real Estate Investment
In this paper, we examine the varied commitments the real estate investment industry has made to determine if our industry is contributing to the goal of carbon neutrality in a meaningful and more importantly, measurable, way.
NAIC’s RBC Update: Implications for Real Estate Allocation Decisions
On May 27th, 2021, NAIC’s Life RBC Working Group approved an ACLI-sponsored proposal to reduce risk-based capital (RBC) factors for real estate equity (REE). MetLife Investment Management hosted an interactive moderated panel discussion to discuss these changes and the investment implications for life insurance companies.
Recovery Risks at Mid-Year 2021
he Great Recovery of 2021 has so far been volatile and difficult to navigate. The remainder of the year could be at least as difficult with the added stress of potential Central Bank actions, which themselves are highly dependent on ever-changing data signals. We examine the greatest risks to our 2021 forecast.
Technical Analysis Chart Pack July 2021
The G4 government bond yields have been grinding lower from their recent peaks for last few weeks. The immediate downtrend may continue. US 2s10s yield curve spread seems to be more predictable than the 10yr yield level. Continued equity rally and tightening HY spread suggest that market sentiment remains bullish. US Dollar is stabilizing. Commodity rallies are intact, while they are approaching key resistances.
The Case for Investing in Floating Rate Bank Loans
With the economy expanding rapidly, growth in GDP is bringing the customary inflationary pressures along with expectations of rising interest rates. Given the supportive economic backdrop, we see value in floating bank loans. We will explore different segments of the bank loan market and highlight potential benefits and risks of the asset class.
Just Because You Call It a Recession Doesn’t Make It One
Although the COVID crisis caused significant economic disruption and has been defined as a recession, actions to stabilize the economy eliminated many of the positive effects that recessions can have including the failure of non-productive businesses. As a result, it is unlikely we are in a new business cycle. Rather, it is more likely we are returning to the business cycle of early 2020, albeit with significant changes to consumer and monetary and fiscal authority balance sheets.
NAIC’s RBC Update: Implications for Real Estate Allocation Decisions
MetLife Investment Management will host an interactive moderated panel discussion to discuss these changes and the investment implications for life insurance companies.
Investment Open For Business: Our Summer 2021 Commercial Real Estate Outlook
In our most recent commercial real estate outlook, we outline why cap rates may fall during the second half of 2021, explore recent work-from-home and office leasing trends, and comment on the unique “K” shaped nature of the economic downturn/recovery.
The Long and Winding Road: Opportunities and Challenges Facing Insurance Companies
MetLife Investment Management Strategies
Taxable Municipals: Market Review and Outlook
The Taxable Municipal market rallied aggressively in the first quarter. In our 1Q21 market review and outlook, we discuss what triggered this and explore market conditions and events that are likely to influence the asset class going forward.
A Stigmatized Sector—Our Outlook for U.S. Hotel Investments
Today, the hotel sector continues to face challenges, but we believe the most difficult period for hotel demand is behind us. In the very short-term, we believe investors who can provide liquidity to the hotel market can potentially achieve attractive returns.
Short & Intermediate Duration: Q1 2021 Recap, Performance & Outlook
In our latest report, we recap market impacts to short and intermediate duration fixed income assets for Q1 2021 and how that impacted our strategy as well as performance.
Emerging Markets: Market Review and Outlook
In our first quarter Emerging Markets review and outlook, we review current market conditions and global events as they relate to this asset class.