AEW Capital Management -Mon, 10/07/2024 - 22:03

U.S. Economic and Property Market Outlook

The U.S. economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.1% during the first six months of 2024, generally above expectations but significantly slower than the 4.1% real GDP growth recorded over the last six months of 2023. U.S. employment growth also continued to slow, with growth decelerating to a year-over-year pace of 1.6% in July, the slowest employment growth pace since the beginning of the Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening at the end of March 2022.

Consistent with slower economic growth, various measures of inflation continue to trend towards the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2% annually. While core inflation, excluding food and energy costs, shows a clear downward trend, the overall consumer price index (CPI) has proven stubbornly persistent at or slightly above 3% on a year-over-year basis. The most recent data, however, show hopeful slowing with an actual monthly decline in the CPI during June and an annualized increase of only 1% over the prior three months.

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