The U.S. economy continues to expand at a moderate pace despite geopolitical uncertainty, trade friction, and renewed inflation pressure. The key story remains the AI-led investment cycle, which is now an important driver of business spending and broader economic activity.
Learn More The U.S. economy continues to expand at a moderate pace despite geopolitical uncertainty, trade friction, and renewed inflation pressure. The key story remains the AI-led investment cycle, which is now an important driver of business spending and broader economic activity.
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AEW examines the U.S. economic and commercial real estate outlook as higher energy prices create new pressure on consumers, inflation and growth. The report expects no U.S. recession in 2026, but sees slower growth, selective property value improvement and continued uncertainty around rates and inflation.
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AEW makes the case that real estate credit may offer stronger downside protection than corporate direct lending as private credit enters a more uncertain phase. Readers will learn why collateral quality, contractual cash flows, recovery rates, and today’s repriced real estate values may support more resilient private credit outcomes.
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Since the middle of 2022, the stock market (S&P500) has nearly doubled in value while the total return index for property (NPI) is down nearly 10%.
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U.S. economic data, delayed by the prolonged fourth-quarter federal government shutdown, are slowly catching up to pre-shutdown release schedules and are revealing a mixed view of overall economic strength.
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The 90+ days stretching from April 2nd Liberation Day through the July 4th signing of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) represents one of the most consequential periods of federal government policy change in many years. When taken together, these policy changes are, at best, mixed and in some ways negative for both future essential housing development and the financial wellbeing of essential housing renters.
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We believe there are several key reasons to expect a re-steepening of the Treasury yield curve. Most importantly, the U.S. federal budget deficit is extremely large and is now projected to be much greater than it would have been prior to the passage of the recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act. While recently increased tariff rates provide some revenue offsets to these budget impacts, recent court rulings create heightened near-term uncertainty regarding any future tariff revenue.
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Bookended by “Liberation Day” on April 2nd and the President signing into law the “One Big Beautiful Bill” on July 4th, the past 90+ day period is arguably the most consequential period of federal government policy change in the U.S. since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in the latter part of 2008 and early 2009.
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Direct lending has benefited from both a persistent, albeit tightening, illiquidity premium and accretive leverage.
Read More![2025: Investing In A Brave New [Old] World](/sites/default/files/2025-02/AEWFeatured.jpg)
For property investors 2025 can represents the most attractive U.S. real estate investment entry point in more than ten years, but it is not a riskless entry point.
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We believe several distinct, but related forces are combining to form attractive opportunistic investment vintage since the post financial crisis (GFC) period.
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Occupancies climbed 60 bps in the second quarter, averaging 86.6% across the 99 primary and secondary markets tracked by the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC). Demand has been broad based by unit type, acuity level, geography and asset quality, albeit not uniform.
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With potential rate cuts on the horizon, buyer optimism could increase, helping to narrow bid-ask spreads. However, political uncertainties and their domestic and international implications are becoming more significant in decision-making.
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While core inflation, excluding food and energy costs, shows a clear downward trend, the overall consumer price index (CPI) has proven stubbornly persistent at or slightly above 3% on a year-over-year basis.
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As we will highlight in this paper, the global cold chain is perhaps one of the most under-invested and under-improved infrastructure sectors in the U.S. and across the globe.
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U.S. economic growth slowed sharply over the first three months of 2024, decelerating from more than 4% annualized growth recorded during the second half of 2023 to only 1.6% for the first quarter. Previously reliable business cycle indicators such as the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (see Figure 1) continue to signify additional slowing ahead with heightened probability of actual economic contraction (i.e., recession) over the next 12-24 months.
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As the holiday travel season draws to a close, a simple question that can trigger even the most patient of parents everywhere, resonates as well with property investors across the country -- "Are we there yet?"
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The combination of continued moderation in inflation and higher than expected second-quarter real GDP growth has buoyed both investor and consumer sentiment with growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may be approaching the end of the credit tightening cycle and the U.S. economy may avoid recession and achieve a so-called “soft landing.”
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The first quarter saw the continuation of two interrelated trends, tightening credit conditions and slowing economic growth. With respect to the former, the Federal Reserve twice increased the overnight lending rate by twenty-five basis points during the quarter bringing the effective Fed Funds rate to 4.83% at the end of March, almost five hundred basis points above the year-prior level and the largest 12-month increase in the benchmark rate since 1982.
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Justin Pinckney of AEW joins the podcast to discuss how allocators are moving beyond core commercial real estate debt into alternative sectors, emerging opportunities, and evolving risk strategies.
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Join host Stewart Foley on the InsuranceAUM.com Podcast as we explore commercial real estate’s evolving role in investment portfolios, the impact of rising rates, and opportunities amid peak loan maturities.
Read More¹Source: “2025 IREI.Q Real Estate Managers Guide”. The Guide, published annually by Institutional Real Estate, Inc., ranks real estate managers based on the gross value of real estate AUM ($m) as of December 31, 2024. As of December 31, 2025. AEW includes (i) AEW Capital Management, L.P. and its subsidiaries and (ii) affiliated company AEW Europe and its subsidiaries. AEW Europe and AEW Capital Management, L.P. are commonly owned by Natixis Investment Managers and operate independently from each other. Total AEW AUM of $85.9 billion includes $42.5 billion in assets managed by AEW Europe and its affiliates, $3.5 billion in regulatory assets under management of AEW Capital Management, L.P., and $39.9 billion in assets for which AEW Capital Management, L.P. and its affiliates provide (i) investment management services to a fund or other vehicle that is not primarily investing in securities (e.g., real estate), (ii) non-discretionary investment advisory services (e.g., model portfolios) or (iii) fund management services that do not include providing investment advice.