Bill O'Neill, CFA, and Ginny Schiappa, CFA, of Income Research and Management (IR+M), discuss how AI investment, shifting credit quality, passive flows, and expanding investment opportunities are reshaping US credit markets and influencing portfolio decisions for insurance investors.
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IR+M reviews third-quarter fixed income markets as resilient economic growth, persistent inflation and renewed Fed tightening drove Treasury yields higher. The update also examines investment-grade corporates, securitized credit and tax-exempt municipals, highlighting areas of resilience and improving relative value.
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In September, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the federal funds target range 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, marking its first rate hike since 2023; policymakers cited persistent inflation, alongside solid economic activity and resilient domestic spending, while signaling another increase remains possible before year-end.
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Income Research + Management looks ahead to the second half of 2026 through a Fixed Income Cup framework. The article examines whether AI investment can justify elevated expectations, whether the economy can withstand a higher-for-longer rate backdrop, and how investors may position fixed income portfolios for resilience.
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Income Research + Management reviews the first half of 2026 through a Fixed Income Cup framework. The article highlights resilient labor data, U.S. economic strength, yield-dependent demand, consumer divergence and the unresolved risks investors may face in the second half.
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Markets navigated heightened geopolitical uncertainty throughout May as negotiations between the US and Iran evolved, while persistent inflation pressures contributed to a global bond sell-off.
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Markets moved through April with a broadly constructive, risk-on tone, shaped by geopolitical developments in the Middle East, mixed inflation signals, and shifting expectations for US monetary policy.
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As the end of the first quarter of 2026 approached, National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) regulators and industry parties convened on the West Coast to discuss key trends affecting insurers. Between San Diego’s famous fish tacos and whale sightings, attendees received updates on the CLO Factor Modeling Project and the Risk-Based Capital (RBC) Ratio and Impairment Analysis Project, discussed strain on the Securities Valuation Office (SVO) amid a surge in filings, and reviewed clarifications to reporting under the Principles-Based Bond Definition (PBBD) framework, among other topics.
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Markets remained resilient in March despite heightened rate and spread volatility stemming from the ongoing conflict between the US-Israel and Iran.
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Negotiations between the US and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program reached a breaking point when the US and Israel launched an attack on Iran.
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As media scrutiny around BDCs intensifies, we believe the sector’s recent spread widening is driven more by headlines than by a meaningful shift in fundamentals. Applying our time-tested, bottom-up credit research approach, we are evaluating risks deliberately rather than reacting to the noise. This discipline helps us uncover attractive, short-duration bonds at spreads we view as more than compensatory, issued by best-in-class managers with strong underwriting and liquidity designed to navigate market weakness. With our experienced team, we are leaning into the volatility and prudently capitalizing on sentiment-driven dislocations — not retreating from them.
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Thus far, the market reaction to the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has been relatively muted, suggesting the escalation was at least partly priced in last week. As expected, energy prices, such as oil and liquified natural gas (LNG), have increased as the Middle East remains a production and transportation hub for these commodities. While the short-term economic impact appears to be relatively benign, the longer-term consequences could be more significant if the conflict becomes prolonged and intensifies (higher inflation, increased deficits, strain on lower-end consumer…). We continue to monitor developments closely for potential portfolio impacts and opportunities.
Read More Income Research takes a look at the market news from January 2026
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Discover our new monthly chart series that offers timely insights into today's fixed income markets.
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In 2025, the market has been characterized by a series of – at times – disruptive and conflicting forces. Tariffs resulted in supply chain volatility and renewed inflation pressures as the Fed found its rate-cutting groove.
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In 2024, insurers were positioned more defensively as they increased portfolio liquidity and realized record results due to elevated yields and positive equity returns. As insurers continue to navigate persistent and pervasive uncertainty, flexibility will remain essential.
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We propose that investors adopt an option-based approach to quantify expected principal loss under normal and leptokurtic collateral outcomes.
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As we head into the final fortnight before the election, new polls and prognostications are emerging daily. We believe that these indicators are as valid as those proffered by a Magic 8 Ball, that fortune-telling billiards ball from our childhood.
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With the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) preparing to implement new reporting guidelines for fixed income securities, we engaged with various industry participants to better understand the impact on our insurance clients’ portfolios. By connecting directly with the NAIC, vendors, and regulatory partners, we determined the likely impacts on our clients’ investments, which are summarized below.
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Income Research + Management (IR+M) delves into insurance company filings and extracts the previous year’s key investment portfolio trends. Today, with elevated yields, we believe that insurers can further optimize their investment portfolios.
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For market participants and spectators, 2023 seemingly had a little bit of something for everyone: a nail-biter of an acute banking crisis; near-miss on a US government shutdown; a downgrade of the home team’s credit rating. These events, coupled with ongoing geopolitical conflicts and rate volatility, made 2023 a challenging, but memorable year. With a US presidential election, possible government shutdown, and rate cuts on the horizon, 2024 may be another year awash with momentum shifts and unexpected winners and losers. As investors grapple with persistently high yields and volatility, we believe that there will be opportunities for skilled active managers to shine.
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Our annual analysis of insurance company filings examines trends and changes that occurred in insurance companies’ investment portfolios during 2022. Insurers were impacted during the year by the sharp increase in interest rates and negative returns from risk assets. While most investors were anxious to turn the page on 2022, insurers will likely benefit from higher rates in the years ahead. Within this piece, we also highlight potential investment opportunities that insurance companies can uncover in this new investment landscape.
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2022 provided investors with a plethora of challenging factors to navigate including persistently high inflation, rising interest rates, a hawkish Fed, geopolitical unrest, and deeply negative returns, to name a few. Despite the uncertain macroeconomic environment, corporate fundamentals remained relatively stable as companies were able to fortify balance sheets over the last few years in the midst of record low yields. As we enter 2023, uncertainties remain amid continued tight monetary conditions and what the potential impact may be to the broader economy. In this piece, we review corporate technicals and fundamentals, and what could be in store for the remainder of the year.
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The potential knock-on effect of tighter financial policy has come into focus, as investors shift their attention from inflationary pressures to slowing economic growth. Many investors suggest an inevitable recession in 2023 which has historically had an outsized impact on the high-yield (HY) corporate market. But should we use history as a guide for 2023? In this piece, IR+M’s High Yield team reviews some themes from last year’s challenging environment, with wider spreads and higher rates, before previewing what we might expect in the year ahead.
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At this juncture in the bond market, many Commercial ABS issuers seem to have found themselves in the plot of a James Bond thriller. Commercial ABS bond yields have more than doubled over the last year as the Federal Reserve (Fed) battles inflation, creating refinancing risk for issuers with balloon-style repayment structures. Thanks to a very manageable near-term debt maturity schedule, however, many Commercial ABS issuers just might live to “Die Another Day.”
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Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) and additional stresses in the banking sector, the commercial real estate (CRE) market has been the latest sector to come under the microscope. The interdependencies between CRE and regional banks, coupled with weakness in the office sector and higher interest rates, have been cause for concern for commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) investors. In this piece, we explore the recent headwinds for CRE as they relate to regional banking and the office sector and shed light on our approach to deliver returns in this environment.
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In our annual analysis of insurance company filings, we examine trends and changes that occurred in insurance companies’ investment portfolios during 2021. As is typically the case, overall portfolio allocations were relatively stable, but we did notice some noteworthy shifts on the margin. We also highlight some investment opportunities for insurance companies in a rising interest rate environment.
Read More![You Say Goodbye [2021], I Say Hello [2022]](/sites/default/files/content/images/20962/featured-image/1Q22-Featured-Image-873x367-1.jpg)
We began 2021 with a renewed hope of normalcy given the production and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. The global economy reopened, leading to a sharp rebound in economic activity from the pandemic-induced sell-off in March 2020. The supportive economic backdrop and positive investor sentiment pushed corporate spreads to their tightest levels since 2005. While we believe corporate fundamentals support these valuations, potential headwinds remain in 2022. In this piece, we review corporate technicals and fundamentals, while addressing what to look for in the year ahead.
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As the global economy continues to recover, an accommodative Federal Reserve (Fed) and stimulative fiscal policy have pushed inflation concerns to center stage. By some measures, inflation is at its highest in over a decade, and several factors could sustain these levels. Conversely, other metrics point to a more benign environment, and suggest the recent increase may be “transitory.” While we do not predict the future, we believe overall inflation risks are elevated, particularly given current spreads and valuations. In this piece, we focus on key inflation metrics and the potential impact of inflation on the insurance industry.
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As the coronavirus spread and upended the world economy, businesses of all types were forced to temporarily shut down. The resulting loss of revenue has left many property tenants struggling to pay obligations to landlords, and a significant number of retailers declared bankruptcy. The $600 billion Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) market encompasses many of the businesses most impacted, such as restaurants, office buildings, hotels and malls. Some investors are beginning to fear that losses may occur in their fixed income portfolios, but are such fears overblown? In this piece, we address the state of the CMBS market and detail our take on the sector.
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Insurers continue to grapple with low rates and search for ways to add yield in this environment. While overall portfolio allocations were stable in 2020, there were several noteworthy allocation moves, including a continued decrease in municipals and growth within NAIC 3-rated securities. In our third annual analysis of insurance company filings, we examine the impact of these trends and changes both in 2020 and going forward. We also explore how insurers can navigate this low-yield environment without moving too far out on the risk spectrum.
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In our annual analysis of insurance company filings, we examine trends and changes that occurred in fixed income portfolios during the course of 2019. Although overall portfolio allocations were relatively stable, we saw a continuation of some trends identified last year, including a decrease in municipal allocations. Given the current elevated downgrade risk, we also look at fallen angels and the potential impact to NAIC 3 exposure.
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Insurers have long been heavily invested in the fixed income markets. Within the asset class, allocations continually evolve as market dynamics shift and new reforms are implemented. However, given the many nuances insurance companies face when investing, changes have historically been enacted over an extended period of time and at a gradual pace. In this mailer, we analyzed the recent 2018 filings to examine how insurers repositioned their fixed income portfolios, and what trends we expect going forward.
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Insurers continue to grapple with low rates and search for ways to add yield in this environment. While overall portfolio allocations were stable in 2020, there were several noteworthy allocation moves, including a continued decrease in municipals and growth within NAIC 3-rated securities. In our third annual analysis of insurance company filings, we examine the impact of these trends and changes both in 2020 and going forward. We also explore how insurers can navigate this low-yield environment without moving too far out on the risk spectrum.
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Bill O'Neill, CFA, and Ginny Schiappa, CFA, of Income Research and Management (IR+M), discuss how AI investment, shifting credit quality, passive flows, and expanding investment opportunities are reshaping US credit markets and influencing portfolio decisions for insurance investors.
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Rachel Campbell and Kristoff Nelson of Income Research and Management discuss how AI-driven data center investment is reshaping fixed income markets, credit dynamics, and portfolio strategy.
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Allysen Mattison, Director of Investment Risk and Vice Chair of the Investment Committee at Income Research & Management, shares her insights on managing fixed income risk, from interest rate sensitivity to downside risk and tracking error.
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Jake Remley, CFA, is a senior portfolio manager at Income Research & Management.
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Bill O'Neill is Principal Senior Portfolio Manager and a member of the Investment Committee at Income Research and Management.
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Jim Gubitosi is the co-CIO of Income Research and Management.
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Join host Stewart Foley on the InsuranceAUM.com Podcast as we delve into agency MBS, govies, and the evolving mortgage market with Jake Remley of IR&M.
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In this episode of the InsuranceAUM.com Podcast, host Stewart Foley, CFA, dives into the world of core fixed income with insights on rising rates, inflation, and how insurers are positioning portfolios in today's environment.
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