Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Market - August
The mortgage market ground tighter for most of the month before weakening into its final days.
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11/09/26
AGENCY MBS: GENERATING ALPHA WITHOUT CREDIT RISK
Tyler Patla, Senior Vice President, Managing Director of Core Fixed Income and Director of Agency Mortgages at Pioneer Investments, a Victory Capital Management franchise, discusses agency MBS, prepayment risk, liquidity, security selection, active management, and the growing role of AI in mortgage investing.
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Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Market - July 2026
July continued providing market-moving, yet unthematic, headlines that drove oscillation in spread markets. Mid-June’s tenuous ceasefire between the US and Iran eroded, reigniting the conflict in early July, spiking oil prices and renewing inflationary fears.
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Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Market
June was shaped by two pivotal developments: the signing of a US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, both of which repriced geopolitical risk and the monetary policy outlook.
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Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Market Commentary and Outlook
Pioneer Investments reviews May 2026 agency mortgage-backed securities market activity, including modest MBS outperformance versus Treasuries, Fannie Mae’s continued portfolio purchases, potential streamline refinancing changes and the outlook for agency MBS spreads. The report highlights range-bound spreads, evolving technicals and security selection opportunities amid macro, inflation and policy uncertainty.
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Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Market: Market Commentary and Outlook
Discover how mortgage-backed securities followed broader risk optimism during a volatile month shaped by geopolitical headlines, oil prices and Federal Reserve expectations. The report highlights agency portfolio growth, the rollout of VantageScore4 loans and a range-bound outlook for agency MBS spreads.
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Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Market - March
With the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the resulting disruption drove crude oil prices up 50% and reignited the inflationary concerns that investors had only recently begun to view as manageable.
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Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Market
Agency MBS remained relatively stable amid market volatility, with a neutral outlook as macro uncertainty, interest rates, and geopolitical events continue to shape performance and mortgage rate dynamics.
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Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Market
Agency MBS outperformed in January, driven largely by the White House directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200B of MBS, tightening spreads and supporting the sector despite broader market volatility.
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January Fed Meeting: A More Balanced Approach
The Fed paused rate cuts and held the Fed Funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, signaling a balanced, data-dependent stance with no urgency to ease policy further.
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Pioneer Investments 2026 US Economic Outlook
After a four-year sprint of robust expansion, the US economy finally downshifted in 2025, settling into its natural cruising speed of 2.0% growth. The slowdown wasn't a surprise as it reflected a predictable cooling in consumer spending and a sharp pullback in government consumption. Yet amid this broader deceleration, one segment continued to defy gravity: fixed investment, powered overwhelmingly by the relentless surge in AI-related capital expenditure.
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Developments in Venezuela and Potential Geopolitical and Financial Market Implications
The US carried out a large-scale attack on Venezuela in a swift operation and captured President Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores.
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Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Market - November 2025
On November 8, President Trump and Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte proposed the idea of a fixed-rate mortgage with a 50-year maturity to help combat housing unaffordability. Such an extension could reduce monthly mortgage payments by about 12% relative to a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at the same interest rate. Most market experts have panned the idea, and we agree.
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December Fed Meeting – Not a Hawkish Cut After All
The Federal Reserve (the Fed) voted 9-2-1 to cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points (bp) to a range of 3.50-3.75%, marking the third consecutive Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at which rates were cut.
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US Government Set to Reopen – What’s Next?
The US government has reopened, ending a record 43-day shutdown. The economic cost of the shutdown is forecasted to lower Q4 growth by 1.5% but most will be recovered in Q1 2026. It is not inconceivable to miss two months of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the first time in the 100-year-old series.
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Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Market - October 2025
Despite spread retracement, the MBS sector managed to post another solid month. The Bloomberg US MBS Index gained 0.86% on the month, reflecting a 0.26% excess return to Treasuries. Sector option-adjusted spread (OAS) tightened by 3bp to +28bp. Lower coupons performed best in October, as Fed hawkishness more weighed primarily on investors’ expectations of demand for current coupon.
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December Rate Cut – Not a Foregone Conclusion
The Federal Reserve (the Fed) delivered its anticipated 25 basis point rate reduction, lowering the Fed Funds rate to 3.75-4.00% and marking the second consecutive rate cut. The Fed struck a more hawkish tone than expected as Chair Powell stated a rate cut at the December meeting was not a foregone conclusion.
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Credit Contagion? Not So Fast.
Turmoil in a few regional banks and private credit players does not suggest contagion, or even a severe credit contraction.
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Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Market - September 2025
The Trump administration has made it an explicit goal to lower mortgage rates as a means to mitigate what it has labeled a housing affordability crisis. Its main effort towards this goal so far has been by encouraging the Federal Reserve to lower the effective Fed Funds rate. Unfortunately, the primary mortgage rate does not have a particularly strong correlation with Fed Funds, as illustrated in the graph on the right. In fact, mortgage rates have risen 3 of the 4 times the Fed cut rates over the past two years.
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US Government Shutdown – Who Blinks First?
The US government shut down on midnight October 1. The shutdown occurred since Republicans and Democrats could not agree to pass a bill funding the government for its fiscal year 2026. Democrats want to see an extension of expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits that make health insurance more affordable for millions of Americans and for a reversal of Trump’s cuts to Medicaid, a government healthcare program for the poor.
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Agency MBS: Generating Alpha without Credit Risk
Tyler Patla, Senior Vice President, Managing Director of Core Fixed Income and Director of Agency Mortgages at Pioneer Investments, a Victory Capital Management franchise, discusses agency MBS, prepayment risk, liquidity, security selection, active management, and the growing role of AI in mortgage investing.
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Lessons from the Tranches: How to Pick Good Bonds in Securitized Credit
Noah Funderburk, Portfolio Manager and Director of Securitized Credit at Pioneer Investments, shares lessons from the tranches on pricing risk, navigating structure, and understanding what truly drives returns in securitized credit.
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